• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Investing 3 scenarios for the US economy in 2023
Investing

3 scenarios for the US economy in 2023

by November 30, 2022
by November 30, 2022 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Today is November’s last day, and you can already sense the smell of holidays in the air. The last trading month of the year has traditionally been slow for financial markets, particularly the second half of the month.

As such, December is the month to plan for the year ahead. Markets move based on technical and fundamental factors, so being able to interpret the macro environment is part of successful investment.

How will the world’s largest economy perform in 2023? Here are three scenarios based on growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

US economic growth

Fears of an upcoming recession have gripped financial markets lately. Going into 2023, a positive scenario for US economic growth would have employment and wage growth to slow.

Effectively, it would mean that Fed will hike less, making any economic downturn shallow.

On the other end of the spectrum, the risk comes from the housing market. The 2022 Fed hikes may lead to the housing market collapsing.

Finally, the base case scenario is that the US economy will enter a mild recession in the first half of 2023.

US inflation

The base case scenario for US inflation is that core inflation remains sticky, but as inventories rise, inflation will slow through 2023.

The risk here is that energy prices may rise in 2023, leading to further upside in the prices of goods and services. On the positive side, if shelter inflation falls, together with lower energy and vehicle prices, then inflation might register a significant drop in 2023.

Federal Reserve’s monetary policy

The Fed will have a tough job in 2023. The market has priced in a hike to 4.5% in December 2022 and further hikes to a terminal 5% in February 2023.

But the risk is that the Fed might face sticky wage growth and a resilient job market. In this case, if the Fed cuts in late 2023, the US could not avoid a recession.

The post 3 scenarios for the US economy in 2023 appeared first on Invezz.

You Might Also Like
  • The 10 Best Options Trading Books
  • Top 4 US banks reporting quarterly earnings this week
  • Options Theta Explained: Price Sensitivity To Time
  • CBI says the UK is in a “short and shallow” recession
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Josh Brown says this key indicator suggests it’s time to sell now
next post
Fibocom FWA-dedicated 5G Module FG370 be the First to Pass CE Test Based on MediaTek’s T830

You may also like

Iron Condor Vs. Short Strangle

January 31, 2023

What to expect from software stocks in 2023?

January 3, 2023

Options trading platform SignalPlus integrates with Deribit

December 29, 2022

Don’t expect a bull market anytime soon: David Roche

January 3, 2023

What Are Covered Calls And How Do They Work?

May 18, 2024

MULN stock price forecast: Is it safe to buy Mullen...

December 21, 2022

WWE stock jumped 20% on Friday: find out more

January 6, 2023

Here’s what protests at Foxconn plant mean for the Apple...

November 25, 2022

Elon Musk: here’s why Tesla stock continues to sell-off

December 21, 2022

What to expect from the eurozone economy in 2023

November 30, 2022

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Why do people criticise CPI as...

    December 23, 2022

    Consumer price inflation almost at its...

    December 6, 2022

    Diageo share price forms a wide...

    November 25, 2022
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here