• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Economy Payroll Gains Beat Expectations, but the Pace Is Slowing
Economy

Payroll Gains Beat Expectations, but the Pace Is Slowing

by December 2, 2022
by December 2, 2022 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Total nonfarm payrolls posted a 263,000 gain in November versus a 284,000 rise in October (revised up by 23,000), while September had an increase of 269,000 (revised down by 46,000). The November result easily beat the consensus expectation of 200,000. However, the gain is still the slowest since April 2021.

Excluding the government sector, private payrolls posted a gain of 221,000 in November following the addition of a net 248,000 jobs in October. The average monthly gain over the 23 months since January 2021 was 449,000. However, the monthly increases appear to be slowing. Over the 14 months from January 2021 through February 2022, the average monthly rise was 535,000; for the five months from March 2022 through July 2022, the average was 376,000; and over the last four months, the average has dropped to 239,000 (see first chart). Despite beating expectations, the trend in payroll gains is slowing.

Furthermore, the results among the various industries were mixed in November, with just two industry groups, healthcare and leisure, accounting for 70 percent of the net gain for the month. Four industries had payroll declines in November.

Within the 221,000 increase in private payrolls, private services added 184,000 versus a 12-month average of 322,300, while goods-producing industries added 37,000 versus a 12-month average of 60,400.

Within private service-producing industries, leisure and hospitality added 88,000 (versus a 90,300 twelve-month average), education and health services increased by 82,000 (versus 77,700), information added 19,000 (versus 13,400), and financial gained 14,000 (versus 12,300; see second chart).

Within the 37,000 addition in goods-producing industries, construction added 20,000, durable-goods manufacturing rose by 11,000, nondurable-goods manufacturing expanded by 3,000, and mining and logging industries added 3,000 (see second chart).

While a few of the services industries dominate actual monthly private payroll gains, monthly percent changes paint a different picture. Gains and losses were more evenly distributed, as three industries gained at least 0.5 percent, but four had declines (see third chart).

Average hourly earnings for all private workers also had a bigger gain than expected, rising 0.6 percent in November, the third consecutive acceleration in growth (see fourth chart). That puts the 12-month gain at 5.1 percent, down from a recent peak of 5.6 percent in March 2022 (see fourth chart). Average hourly earnings for private, production and nonsupervisory workers rose 0.7 percent for the month and are up 5.8 percent from a year ago, down from 6.7 percent in March.

The average workweek for all workers fell to 34.4 hours in November from 34.5 in October while the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory dropped to 33.9 hours versus 34.0 in the prior month.

Combining payrolls with hourly earnings and hours worked, the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for all workers gained 0.5 percent in November and is up 7.6 percent from a year ago; the index for production and nonsupervisory workers rose 0.6 percent and is 8.7 percent above the year ago level.

The total number of officially unemployed was 6.011 million in November, a drop of 48,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, while the underemployed rate, referred to as the U-6 rate, decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.7 percent in November (see fifth chart). Both measures have been bouncing around in a flat trend over the last few months.

The employment-to-population ratio, one of AIER’s Roughly Coincident indicators, came in at 59.9 percent for November, down 0.1 from October, the second consecutive drop and still significantly below the 61.2 percent in February 2020.

The labor force participation rate also fell by 0.1 percentage point in November, to 62.1 percent. This important measure has been trending flat recently but is still well below the 63.4 percent of February 2020 (see sixth chart).

The total labor force came in at 164.481 million, down 186,000 from the prior month and nearly matching the February 2020 level (see sixth chart). If the 63.4 percent participation rate were applied to the current working-age population of 264.708 million, an additional 3.34 million workers would be available.

The November jobs report shows total nonfarm and private payrolls posted additional albeit slower gains than recent prior periods. Despite beating expectations in November that some might interpret as a “strong labor market,” the data show the trend in payroll gains is decelerating. Furthermore, concerns about future payroll gains persist in light of aggressive Fed interest rate increases, a modest upward trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance, and an increase in job cut announcements. Still, the level of open jobs remains high, and the number of available workers is low, suggesting the labor market remains tight.

Persistently elevated rates of rising prices are driving aggressive Fed rate increases. At the same time, the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and periodic lockdowns in China continue to disrupt global supply chains. Finally, the AIER Leading Indicators Index remains well below the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting an elevated level of risk for the economic outlook. Caution is warranted.

You Might Also Like
  • DeSantis to huddle with donors in Miami, another sign presidential campaign is imminent
  • FLASHBACK: RFK Jr. endorsed Hillary Clinton multiple times, praised her ‘character’
  • 16 vulnerable House Dems who traveled to White House a combined 133 times during Biden’s tenure
  • Black GOP lawmakers hold ‘Congress, Cognac, and Cigars’ event in key swing state
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
2022 Inflation statistics: how bad is it worldwide?
next post
The Internet Computer integration adds smart contracts to Bitcoin

You may also like

Supreme Court to decide whether cities can ban homeless from...

January 13, 2024

Vance dismisses polls that show Harris ahead: ‘Wildly inaccurate’

August 18, 2024

Doctors react after Fetterman checks into hospital for clinical depression

February 17, 2023

Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder convicted in $60M racketeering...

March 10, 2023

Bill Barr says Trump’s indictment is ‘very damning’ if ‘even...

June 12, 2023

Beijing bristles as Chinese companies could face sanctions for Russia...

February 16, 2024

Biden takes swipe at Second Amendment supporters: ‘You need F-15s’...

January 16, 2023

Gaza aid from US, others falling short as critics say...

March 15, 2024

Comer and MTG confront DOJ on whether Hunter Biden violated...

September 9, 2023

Gorsuch has stern message when asked about Biden Supreme Court...

August 4, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past This Level Crucial For Resumption Of Upmove

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,309 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past...

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Minnesota lawmakers target Amazon, other warehouses...

    May 18, 2023

    US-owned ship struck by missile near...

    January 16, 2024

    Biden kicks off first big re-election...

    June 18, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here