• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock CPI Excludes Food–Have You Seen the ETF DBA?
Stock

CPI Excludes Food–Have You Seen the ETF DBA?

by February 15, 2023
by February 15, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Maybe it’s just Valentine’s Day, so the food and commodities market sees a push to chocolates, flowers, and fine dining.

And maybe not.

The CPI came out with an unexpected rise…but goods remained softer. Services on the other hand, rose. However, the CPI excludes food and energy prices.

We see no relief in many of the agricultural commodities in the Investor DB Agricutural Fund ETF. The underlying index includes corn, soybeans, wheat, Kansas City wheat, sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs, and, most recently, livestock.

The investment seeks to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return™ (the “index”) over time, plus the interest income from the Fund’s holdings of primarily US Treasury securities and money market income less the Fund’s expenses.

If you want to track how the Fed is doing controlling real inflation, regardless of the inverted yield curve, the rise in long bond yields or even the U.S. dollar holding support…

Before we review the chart, our quant models have lots of commodities holdings. In particular, the Sector Conservative, Sector Moderate, and GEMS models hold metals and oil exploration. Interestingly, we also hold SOXL or the 3-times leveraged Semiconductor bull (since January 11th).

Chips and commodities are where it’s at right now. That makes chips as valuable as say, sugar (one of the largest holdings in DBA). And speaking of sugar, the futures are holding recent highs. Another blast higher in sugar and more chaos could ensue, as we have written about many times. Here is a timely article written in April 2020!!!

The CPI number excludes food. However, to date, while food prices have declined from the peak in July 2022, food inflation sits at 10%. Food at home is 11.3% and food away from home at 8.2%.

Circling back to the DBA chart, the price rose to clear all of the prior action since October 2022. However, the 200-day moving average looms large as resistance with today’s high. Also noteworthy is that DBA is now outperforming the benchmark according to our Leadership indicator.

Real Motion had a breakout and diversion to the upside, as the momentum cleared over the 200-DMA and popped to new highs not seen since last September. The diversion is that the momentum indicator cleared the 200-DMA while price has yet to confirm. Something to watch out for.

With the four indices still rangebound, these continuing bullish trends in the most essential thing on the planet–FOOD–should keep those focusing on A) disinflation and B) a fed pivot a bit quieter.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish shares three charts she is using to measure inflation using the commodities markets on the Wednesday, February 14 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar with David Keller!

Mish gives you some ideas of what might outperform in this new wave of inflation on the Friday, February 10 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five. She has picks from energy, construction, gold, defense, and raw materials.

Read about Mish’s interview with Neils Christensen in this article from Kitco!

In this appearance on Making Money with Charles Payne, Charles and Mish discuss whether Powell can say mission accomplished.

Mish shares her views on how to approach the earnings announcements of Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, and gives her technical outlook on how the earnings results could impact the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in this appearance on CMC Markets.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 420 resistance with 390-400 support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 190 pivotal support and 202 major resistance.Dow (DIA): 343.50 resistance, 338 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): Nice comeback–still 2 inside weeks working, so watch 311 as a good point to clear or fail from.Regional banks (KRE): 65.00 resistance, 61 support.Semiconductors (SMH): 248 cleared with the chips rout–254.60 last week’s high.Transportation (IYT): The 23-month MA is 244–now resistance, 228 support.Biotechnology (IBB): Sideways action 130-139 range.Retail (XRT): 78.00 the 23-month MA resistance and nearest support 68.00.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • MEM TV: Capitulation Signals for a Market BOTTOM
  • Are the Seven Still Magnificent?
  • MEM TV: Get In EARLY! These Areas Are Seeing LIFT OFF
  • The Nasdaq 100 vs the Rest of the World
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Oklahoma Medicaid cut will affect coverage for 300,000
next post
Why You Should Never Use a Stop Loss in Options Trading

You may also like

Decode the Stock Market’s Health With This Key Indicator

February 25, 2025

This Week’s Sector & Industry Group to Watch

February 3, 2024

Growth Stocks Shine in Short-Covering Rally

August 30, 2023

The Impact of Using Different Benchmarks for RRG!

July 16, 2023

Stocks Soar, Energy Prices Spike: Are Geopolitical Tensions to Blame?

October 4, 2024

200-Day Moving Average Confirms Bearish Phase

April 17, 2025

May Begins A Very Strong Period For Growth Stocks

April 30, 2023

Key Levels for AMZN, AMD, & AAPL Earnings!

April 30, 2024

Copper Stocks Have Lots Of Volatility

August 4, 2023

Hedging the S&P All-Time Highs With Options

May 22, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout, pulls outlook

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025
    • The Unpredictable Stock Market: How to Make Sense of It

      May 8, 2025
    • AMD CEO calls China a ‘large opportunity’ and warns against strict U.S. chip controls

      May 7, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,631 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,339 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,320 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,302 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,186 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout,...

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Trend Signals and Trailing Stop Examples...

    March 11, 2023

    Top 2 Ways You Can Take...

    March 31, 2023

    A Déjà Vu in The Consumer...

    September 12, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here