• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Will the Market Internals Turn More Bearish?
Stock

Will the Market Internals Turn More Bearish?

by March 8, 2023
by March 8, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Jerome Powell brought reality to the market.

“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Powell told the Senate Banking Committee in prepared remarks. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”

Powell noted that economic data from January on inflation, job growth, consumer spending, and manufacturing production have partly reversed course from the slowdown seen back in December. Interestingly, coming into today, the Sentiment Gauge flashed neutral.

Monday’s daily stated that “Looking at Granny Retail, that business cycle not only leaves investors with the trading range resistance, it also shows how the Retail sector could be a harbinger of worse times this spring.” We went on to say, “Granny Retail and Prodigal Regional Banks are my key go-tos for this week.”

So, will neutral sentiment go to bearish? And if so, what is next?Powell says he has no intention of raising the inflation target from 2%, but that could change–especially since CPI is still above 6%, and that number comes out next week.

With an inverted yield curve, a potential bottom in the long bonds, a stronger dollar, a persistent trading range and certain commodities still strong regardless (sugar, grains, crude oil, steel), the environment keeps screaming stagflation.

The chart of the long bonds (TLT) has a constructive exhaustion gap bottom in play. Since then, we have seen consolidation between 101-102.50. TLT is now outperforming SPY (Leadership), and the Real Motion indicator shows a positive divergence, as momentum is just under the 50-DMA while price is considerably below its 50-DMA. 

Why would long bonds bottom? The long bond is just one part of the yield curve. It could mean that, while the short-term yields invert, the market is expecting a recession, hence a flight to safety in long bonds. We imagine that, should 20+ year bonds continue to go north, that too could be inflationary. TLTs have to get above the 50-DMA to get interesting.

Stagflation is Worst thing for the FED. A pause means inflation goes higher. But not pausing also means certain inflation beyond Fed’s control goes higher, given geopolitical and natural disaster potentials.

Raise rates higher and kill the economy.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish focuses on defense stocks in this appearance on CNBC Asia.

Mish points out a Biotech stock and a Transportation stock to watch if the market settles on Business First AM.

Mish joins Maggie Lake on Real Vision to talk commodities and setups!

Read about Mish’s article about the implications of elevated sugar prices in this article from Kitco!

While the indices remain range bound, Mish shows you several emerging trends on the Wednesday, March 1 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five!

Mish joins Business First AM for Stock Picking Time in this video!

See Mish sit down with Amber Kanwar of BNN Bloomberg to discuss the current market conditions and some picks.

Click here to watch Mish and StockCharts.com’s David Keller join Jared Blikre as they discuss trading, advice to new investors, crypto, and AI on Yahoo Finance.

In her latest video for CMC Markets, MarketGauge’s Mish Schneider shares insights on the gold, the S&P 500 and natural gas and what traders can expect as the markets remain mixed.

Coming Up:

March 8th: StockCharts TV’s The Pitch-a panel with Mish and 5 stock picks; also Investment Strategy Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial

March 9th: Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial

March 13th: Mish on TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides

March 14th: F.A.C.E. Forex Analytix with Dale Pinkert

March 16th:The Final Bar with Dave Keller, StockCharts TV

And down on the road

March 20th: Madam Trader Podcast with Ashley Kyle Miller

March 22nd: The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

March 24th: Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg

March 30th:Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

March 31st: Festival of Learning Real Vision “Portfolio Doctor”

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 390 support with 405 pivotal; 410 resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): 190 failed, so Grandpa hurts–185 support.Dow (DIA): 326 support, 335 resistance.Nasdaq (QQQ): 300 the pivotal area 290 major support; 284 big support, 300 pivotal, 305 resistance.Regional Banks (KRE): 57 big support, 60 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 240 pivotal, 248 key resistance; 248 resistance, 237 then 229 support.Transportation (IYT): 240 resistance and 230 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 125-135 trading range.Retail (XRT): 66 pivotal with 64 key support.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • Find the Strongest Price Charts with the StochClose Rank
  • DP Trading Room: Long-Term View of the Dollar
  • Keeping Up with 3 Key Ratios in a Trading Range
  • MEM TV: Can the Markets Continue Higher on Low Inflation Numbers?
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
New Hampshire bills aim to embolden parents, ban trans procedures for minors
next post
Finance, Family, Society: Finding a Good Balance

You may also like

Monthly Chart Points to Much Higher Oil Prices Coming

October 11, 2023

Who will Win the Battle for the 200-day SMA?

November 4, 2023

Red Flags Raised by Bearish Engulfing Patterns

July 6, 2023

Sector Spotlight: Timeless Knowledge and Insights into Sector Rotation &...

December 13, 2023

Bitcoin’s Tug-of-War: Navigating the Bearish Trend Amid Potential Bullish Outlook

May 18, 2023

When the Market Moves, Think of Robots Pulling the Strings

February 13, 2023

The Only Setup That You’ll Ever Need

July 13, 2023

The Halftime Show: Screening for the Strongest Oversold Bullish Stocks

July 11, 2023

Want More Market Insights and Trade Ideas? Try These Tools

June 10, 2023

From Crash to Comeback: Is SMCI Stock the Hottest AI...

February 19, 2025

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout, pulls outlook

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025
    • The Unpredictable Stock Market: How to Make Sense of It

      May 8, 2025
    • AMD CEO calls China a ‘large opportunity’ and warns against strict U.S. chip controls

      May 7, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,630 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,339 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,320 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,302 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,186 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout,...

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    DP Trading Room: Tariffs Narrowing, Sparks...

    March 24, 2025

    Week Ahead: Putting Market Moves In...

    October 5, 2024

    RRG found Three Strong Stocks in...

    August 8, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here