• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock 1st Quarter — QE Boosts Commodities and Stocks
Stock

1st Quarter — QE Boosts Commodities and Stocks

by March 31, 2023
by March 31, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Partial Look at the Models and Positions

On Friday, I was part of the Festival of Learning, sponsored by Real Vision, to help new and experienced traders. The topics that came up were in line with what everyone who trades wants more insights on:

FOMOPosition SizingRisk ManagementEntries Stops and ExitsPortfolio ManagementManaging Emotions

One question was on AI and Robo Trading, something we know a lot about.

First off, having decades of discretionary trading experience, evolving into algos was a process. All of our rule-based, structured disciplined approaches as discretionary traders are an integral part of the quant models and blends. Our goal is to create an “edge” using equity trends from various markets and asset classes.

The reason I bring this up today is because many of the positions are inline with our personal view of the macro. And many of the positions are following our trend-strength indicators that have placed us in sectors we could have potentially overlooked on our own. What fascinates me, right now, is the injection of liquidity by the Fed, which of course is not being called by its rightful name–Quantitative Easing.

That leads me to think–what else can we buy now, that hasn’t been crowded by the FOMO crowd?

As you can see in the Bloomberg chart, cause/effect for tech, but also for many different sectors begging for the Fed fix.

The Economic Modern Family, though, has many other issues. As the 1st quarter ended, only Semiconductors closed above the 2-year or 23-month business cycle to show expansion. The rest of the Family did not, and Retail and Regional Banks still way underperform. Which could mean more QE on the way, with the rest of the indices and key sectors following SMH, or it could mean a wakeup call for the 2nd quarter.

Either way, we still believe that most are #lookingforinflationinallthewrongplaces.

Sure, the market loves the liquidity in the name of saving any future bank issues. But everything though the Fed does, as we well know, has a cost.

Last week, I wrote about agricultural commodities and DBA, the Ag ETF. Since that Daily, DBA has risen over 4%. So, what should we look for next?

I wrote about long bonds (TLT). TLTs rallied with the market. The good news is that long bonds are underperforming SPY, which is risk on. If yields fall further, however, will that be good for the market when, all of a sudden, the Fed has to become more aggressive again to control rising inflation? Haven’t we learned yet that the more “QE”, the more spending, the more inflation, and so on?

So, watch the bonds. Consider the grains. And since the PCE released Friday excludes food and energy, keep track of precious metals, sugar and crude oil.

Our quants have not gotten into oil yet, so, from a macro perspective, over $82, we are interested.

Look for momentum to clear the 50-DMA along with price. Then, the risk will be minimal, and the reward substantially great.

But also, the cost to the economy.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish talks with CNBC Asia about hope, fear, and greed, and what could happen going forward.

On the Thursday edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, Mish walks you through where we are in the economic cycle at the end of the first quarter, then highlights what to look for (and trade) as we enter the second quarter.

In this appearance on CMC Markets, Mish gives you clear actionable information to support why commodities look to go higher from here.

Mish talks looking for stock market opportunities on Business First AM.

Mish discusses long bonds, Silver to Gold and the Dollar in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg.

Mish sits down with Kristen on Cheddar TV’s closing bell to talk what Gold is saying and more.

Mish and Dave Keller of StockCharts look at longer term charts and discuss action plans on the Thursday, March 17 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar.

Mish covers current market conditions strengths and weaknesses in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish sees opportunity in Vietnam, is trading SPX as a range, and likes semiconductors, as she explains to Dale Pinkert on ForexAnalytix’s F.A.C.E. webinar.

Mish and Nicole discuss specific stock recommendations and Fed expectations on TD Ameritrade.

Coming Up:

April 4th: The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 405-410 back in focus.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance still.Dow (DIA): Needs a second close over 332.Nasdaq (QQQ): 329 the 23-month moving average–huge.Regional Banks (KRE): Weekly price action more inside the range of the last 2 weeks–still looks weak.Semiconductors (SMH): And she’s off–255 key support, 270 resistance.Transportation (IYT): Cleared the weekly moving average, so now has to hold 225.Biotechnology (IBB): Good performance but not enough yet, unless clears 130 area.Retail (XRT): Ran right to big resistance at 64.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • Trifecta of Trouble
  • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup
  • The SCTR Report: Workday Rises on Strong Earnings Results and Rising Technical Strength
  • MEM TV: Three Key Signals That This Market Will Go Higher
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Top 2 Ways You Can Take Advantage of StockCharts Scans
next post
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to join Las Cruces rally for former U.S. Rep. Herrell

You may also like

Big Tech Earnings, Fed Meeting, Jobs Report: Will They Add...

July 30, 2024

RRG Showing Strong Rotation For Stocks in All Time Frames

January 15, 2024

How Bad Could This Selling Get?

July 7, 2023

Volatility Taunting Fresh Equity Buyers

September 23, 2023

Are You Ready For A Huge Rally?

August 18, 2023

Week Ahead: While Uptrend Stays Intact In Nifty, Stay Selective...

July 17, 2023

Don’t Ignore This Unusual Event on the Market’s March to...

January 20, 2024

Three Big Negatives Overshadow the Uptrends in SPY and QQQ

December 20, 2024

MEM TV: New BULLISH THRUST in the S&P 500

November 3, 2023

Stocks Selloff into Close After Failing at Resistance

August 10, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Unlocking the Secrets to Profitable Semiconductor...

    February 21, 2025

    Lagging Indicators Confirm Bearish Phase For...

    October 14, 2023

    What to Do With NVDA (And...

    February 16, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here