• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Lead Prices Foretell CPI Changes
Stock

Lead Prices Foretell CPI Changes

by April 21, 2023
by April 21, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Inflation rates have been coming back down from their big post-COVID spike to above 8%. But they are likely to see a brief upturn, if this week’s guest fortune-teller is correct.

The movements of the price of lead tend to get repeated about 4 months later in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). That is the message in this week’s chart. Lead is an industrial metal which most of us do not think about, now that it has been taken out of gasoline, but it still finds uses in lead-acid car batteries, car radiators, and in some electronics components. Its price goes up and down with demand, like lots of other industrial metals, and it does a pretty good job of foretelling the movements of other prices.

This is relevant right now because lead prices bottomed on September 27, 2022 and spiked up to a top on December 30, 2022. We have not yet seen the CPI reflect that upswing in lead prices, and we ought to see some echo of it over the next 1-2 months. That up move in lead prices in late 2022 did not go very far nor for very long, but it was still a noticeable up move that ought to see its echo get felt in consumer prices. Note that, in the chart above, I have shifted forward the plot of lead prices in order to allow us to better see how the CPI data echo lead’s movements after that amount of lag time.

This is not a new phenomenon; it has been going on for years. Here is a longer-term chart going back to 2008, again with the 4-month offset employed.

The movements of the CPI rate of change do not perfectly echo all of lead’s price movements. And this is daily pricing for spot lead versus monthly data for the CPI, and so the lead price plot understandably has more noise.

Why this particular lag time is 4 months is a fascinating question, but not a very useful one. A person does not need to have an answer for that question in order to take advantage of the insights that this comparison offers us. If a phenomenon has been going on consistently for long enough, we do not have to be able to perfectly explain it in order to notice it and use it. It is also worth noting that the magnitudes of lead’s price movements do not always get perfectly replicated in the CPI data. I am not bothered by that, because I find that if I get the direction and the timing of the turns correct, the magnitudes can take care of themselves.

Look for the CPI to make a bit of an inflationary resurgence over the next 1-3 months, and for the Fed and others to get a bit excited about that. But also know that it should just be a temporary resurgence.

You Might Also Like
  • Deja Dot.com Disaster?
  • Oh Boy… Here Comes the Pullback!
  • Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime
  • Two Holding Up and Two Breaking Down
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Check Out This Economic Indicator
next post
GNG TV: All Quiet on the Wall St. Front

You may also like

How To Buy Meta at a Bargain: An Options Strategy...

February 15, 2024

Inspire Soaring Profits: A Unique View For Success

February 3, 2023

The Chart to Help Navigate a Summer Market Top

July 5, 2024

Why the MACD Crossover Signal is SO Important

October 16, 2024

The Semiconductors Have Topped; Look Elsewhere For Opportunities

June 22, 2024

Is Sentiment Too Bullish?

December 22, 2023

DP Trading Room: Magnificent Seven Earnings Preview

October 28, 2024

Sector Spotlight: Timeless Knowledge and Insights into Sector Rotation &...

December 13, 2023

Californians Caused Late October Dip (and Rebound)

November 17, 2023

Bonds: Don’t Forget the Long-Term Trend

September 14, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Should You be Concerned About These...

    April 2, 2024

    MSFT Stock At Record High: Is...

    November 30, 2023

    More from Mish’s Outlook 2024 —...

    December 21, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here