• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Fresh Macroeconomic Look after CPI
Stock

Fresh Macroeconomic Look after CPI

by May 10, 2023
by May 10, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

I was honored to spend time on Making Money with Charles Payne, which airs on Fox Business, and give a brief glimpse into why I am not as bearish right now based on the macro. (link below)

My macro take based on business cycles and zooming out on the charts? The economic contraction based on longer business cycle timeframe or 6-8 years, might be done. The 80-month moving average (green line) held in small caps (IWM) retail (XRT) and transportation (IYT). That doesn’t mean we start expanding, though; it just means the market looking forward, might trade to the upper regions of the trading range. That is the Stagnate part of stagflation.

On the other hand, the business cycle within the longer cycle or 2 years as measured by the 23-month moving average (blue-line) has yet to pierce to the upside, except in a couple of sectors like semiconductors (SMH). Thus, growth stocks could expand further while the “inside” parts of the US economy remain sideways for longer. Hence, we have bad news and good news.

The bad news is the indices, and many sectors, are rangebound and may remain so for a long time.

The good news is the indices, and many sectors, are rangebound and may remain so for a long time.

We still believe that the SPY could clear over the 23-month moving average. Ultimately though, the small-caps (IWM) must follow. Two scenarios can spoil the party:

If IWM fails the 80-month moving average going into more of a recessionary cycle-worst influence are the Regional Banks. That would force SPY to reconsider the rally.IWM holds yet cannot get above 190-200. In that case the SPY could be at 240 and still reverse course.

Clearly, you can see the difference between the small caps and the S&P 500 on the daily timeframe as well.

A first step would be for IWM to rally above the 50-DMA or blue line. Then, maybe, we are on the way to more upside. Shorter-time frame of course, but a good start if it can happen.

Real Motion Momentum is meh in the SPY and about to enter a bear phase in the IWM. Momentum needs to clear back over both moving averages in IWM to get even more interesting.

More macro:

High grade corporate bonds (LQD) and high yield high debt junk bonds are both in trading ranges. However, seasonally, and historically, yields tend to peak in May. Considering the CPI numbers, that is possible.

The US Dollar is holding major support, testing the lows of its 2 year business cycle expansion. That is a good line in the sand. Furthermore, gold and silver are also now range bound- albeit at higher levels. Copper and Platinum are strong. Soft commodities, especially sugar and cocoa, are strong. Food prices remain the stickiest part of inflation.

That is the Flation part of stagflation.

The CPI numbers exclude food and energy. Plus, global inflation still high.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In this appearance on Fox Business’s Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles discuss if economy has contracted enough with support in place, and present 3 stock picks.

Mish covers the trading range and a few of her recent stock picks on Business First AM.

In this appearance on Real Vision, Maggie Lake and Mish discuss current state of the market, from small caps to tech to gold.

In the Q2 edition of StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward 2023, hosted by David Keller, Mish joins RRG Research’s Julius de Kempenaer and Simpler Trading’s TG Watkins for an roundtable discussion about the things they are seeing in, and hearing about, the markets.

Mish and Dave Keller discuss why Mish believes that yields will peak in May, what to expect next in gold, and more in this in-studio appearance on StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar!

Mish explains why Grandma Retail (XRT) may become our new leading indicator on the May 4th edition of Your Daily Five.

Mish discusses the FOMC and which stock she’s buying, and when on Business First AM.

Mish covers strategy for SPY, QQQ, and IWM.

Coming Up:

May 11th: Mario Nawfal, Twitter Spaces at 8am ET & Jim Pupluva, Financial Sense Podcast

May 18th: Presentation for Orios VC Fund, India

May 19th: Real Vision Analysis

May 22nd: TD Ameritrade

May 31st: Singapore Radio with Kai Ting 6:05pm ET MoneyFM 89.3.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 23-month MA 420Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support – 180 resistanceDow (DIA): Dancing on the 23-month MANasdaq (QQQ): 329 the 23-month MARegional banks (KRE): 42 now pivotal resistance-holding last Thurs lowSemiconductors (SMH): 23-month MA at 124Transportation (IYT): 202-240 biggest range to watch Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range to watch from monthly chartsRetail (XRT): 56-75 trading range to break one way or another

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • SPY Has a Clear Level to Beat
  • Coming Soon: A New Era of Options Trading With OptionsPlay
  • Watch for Higher Lows in These Three Tech Stocks
  • Simple RSI Trend Strategy: Entry BEFORE a Breakout!
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Market Participation Is Dismal
next post
CA Sen. Feinstein arrives at Capitol in wheelchair in first photos following her nearly three-month absence

You may also like

BIG SURPRISE (Not)! The Fed Does Exactly What They Said...

July 26, 2023

Rocks over Stocks | GoNoGo Show 041824

April 18, 2024

Profit From the AI Wave Now: One Stock With Lots...

December 21, 2023

How Mega-Cap Names Dominate Through Market Cap

October 16, 2023

What to Do When The MACD Is Broken

September 28, 2023

Three ETFs Showing Renewed Strength

April 1, 2023

Superior NYFANG+ performance leaves S&P 500 in the dust

May 17, 2023

When These Levels Break, The S&P 500 Is Going To...

March 27, 2024

Market Secrets Revealed! Final Bar Mailbag — US Dollar, S&P...

November 27, 2023

Why Sector Rotation Matters NOW! And What You NEED to...

July 26, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout, pulls outlook

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025
    • The Unpredictable Stock Market: How to Make Sense of It

      May 8, 2025
    • AMD CEO calls China a ‘large opportunity’ and warns against strict U.S. chip controls

      May 7, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,630 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,339 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,320 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,302 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,186 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout,...

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    The Bull Has Left the Bear...

    November 17, 2023

    The July 6-Month Calendar Range Hits...

    August 7, 2023

    5 Key Ways to BOOST Your...

    July 28, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here