• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Technical and Fundamental Analysis on US Oil Fund
Stock

Technical and Fundamental Analysis on US Oil Fund

by May 15, 2023
by May 15, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

USO, the US Oil Fund ETF, invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels. Essentially, the top 6 holdings are crude oil futures from May to August–which, like futures, will continue to roll out and into the next month as contract months expire.

The month of May has seen a tremendous about of ouflow of funds in US oil. YTD total return for investors is -11.47%.

Energy, gas and oil are the underperformers this year and a main reason many call for deflation, recession or at the very least, end of accelerating inflation. What we do know as commodities traders, though, is that there are emerging trends, existing trends and trends that are on vacation (which could last months or years).

Which trend is US Oil in?

On a monthly chart, USO is not stacked, as I have shown you with other sectors. In other words, the 23-month moving average sits under the 80-month MA. That tells us that, even in 2022 when the price was over both MAs, the phase never really turned bullish.

Now, in 2023, USO is under the 23-month MA, signaling more of a recession as many economists talk about. However, on the Daily charts, March brought USO to a 2-year low.

In May, we see an exhaustion gap, provided the low of 59.70 made on May 4th remains intact. Monday, USO had an inside day, trading inside Friday’s range. The Real Motion momentum indicator shows a bit of a bullish divergence as the red dotted lines head closer to the moving averages. That makes the case for a possible rally should USO’s price clear the 50-DMA (blue).

Summer season is about to start. The US Strategic Oil Reserves are low with stock in crude oil at 40-year lows. The plan by the US is to refill the SPR in the 3rd quarter of 2023. I’ll leave it here.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In this video, Mish walks you thru the Dollar, Euro, GBP, Gold, Silver and more.

Mish walks you through the fundamentals and technical analysis legitimizing a meme stock on Business First AM.

In this appearance on Fox Business’s Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles discuss if economy has contracted enough with support in place, and present 3 stock picks.

Mish covers the trading range and a few of her recent stock picks on Business First AM.

In this appearance on Real Vision, Maggie Lake and Mish discuss current state of the market, from small caps to tech to gold.

In the Q2 edition of StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward 2023, hosted by David Keller, Mish joins RRG Research’s Julius de Kempenaer and Simpler Trading’s TG Watkins for an roundtable discussion about the things they are seeing in, and hearing about, the markets.

Mish and Dave Keller discuss why Mish believes that yields will peak in May, what to expect next in gold, and more in this in-studio appearance on StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar!

Mish explains why Grandma Retail (XRT) may become our new leading indicator on the May 4th edition of Your Daily Five.

Mish discusses the FOMC and which stock she’s buying, and when on Business First AM.

Mish covers strategy for SPY, QQQ, and IWM.

Coming Up:

May 18th: Presentation for Orios VC Fund, India

May 19th: Real Vision Analysis

May 22nd: TD Ameritrade

May 31st: Singapore Radio with Kai Ting 6:05pm ET MoneyFM 89.3.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 23-month MA 420.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Now below the 23-month MA.Nasdaq (QQQ): 329 the 23-month MA.Regional Banks (KRE): 42 now pivotal resistance; holding last Thursday’s low.Semiconductors (SMH): 23-month MA at 124.Transportation (IYT): 202-240 biggest range to watch.Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range to watch from monthly charts.Retail (XRT): 56-75 trading range to break one way or another.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • Mild Recession? Three Indicators That Can Offer Insights
  • Can Small Caps Lead the Market Higher? A Video Analysis
  • The Halftime Show: What’s the Fed’s Next Move? Here’s One Thing to Watch
  • Bank Fear Selloff Gives Way To Earnings Driven Rally – Was Last Week’s Shakeout A Positive Signal?
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Harnessing Momentum: Jumping On the 52-Week Breakout (Before It Happens)
next post
DP Trading Room: Why SPY, Not SPX? Dividends!

You may also like

Are We Staring At A Technical Rebound On This Metal...

March 1, 2023

Step 1: Asset Creation, Step 2: —————?, Step 3: Asset...

December 6, 2024

MEM TV: Time To SELL EVERYTHING?!

April 13, 2024

Long-Term Bond Rally On the Way

November 9, 2023

A Tale of Two Semiconductor ETFs – Why is SMH...

November 19, 2024

RRG Indicates That non-Mega Cap Technology Stocks Are Improving

April 11, 2024

MEM TV: Here’s How to Trade Explosive Stocks After Earnings

May 18, 2024

Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation Suggests Market Ready to Move

April 18, 2023

Buy the Dips!

July 8, 2023

2 Consolidating Stocks Ready To Resume Their Uptrends

April 8, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Breadth Overbought Near-Term

    July 15, 2023

    An Investment Routine for Spotting Buy-The-Dip...

    August 27, 2024

    Sector Spotlight: Some Valentine Love for...

    February 14, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here