• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock A Glimpse at the Next 6 Months in the Markets
Stock

A Glimpse at the Next 6 Months in the Markets

by July 1, 2023
by July 1, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

With last week’s strong economic stats and inflation basically flatlined, many believe there will be a soft landing and no recession. However, there are stats saying that, with the yield curve so inverted (most since 1983), recession can and probably will still happen.

Recession can take time to emerge, with expectations that it won’t occur until 2024 or 2025. First though, we still see stagflation.

5.4% core CPI in Europe and 4.6% PCE U.S. are just the numbers we need to infer that banks could still raise rates, but the speed (for sure) and perhaps the number of times they raise is coming to an end. The FED wants a weaker jobs market, and we could see that in the near-future. Plus, a new round of inflation. Regardless, the market anticipated a bull run for the first 6 months of the year, as it is forward thinking.

The market saw the rate of change for interest rate hikes slowing, the economy most likely not contracting further, inflation potentially peaking, and the technology sector cheap and appealing. We can certainly thank the consumers in large part for the great economic stats as they are the reason the market and economy have been stronger. YOLO?

If we had to define current sentiment into two categories, it appears anger (France) and fatalism (YOLO) win. However, now that GDP rose for 3 quarters consecutively, one must wonder whether the market will continue to project further economic strength for the second 1/2 of the year.

In the case of small caps, a trading range prevails, which means we need to see small caps show new leadership to remain bullish. We also need to see other consumer areas surface, besides the large rallies thus far in airlines and cruise ships. On the monthly chart, IWM has yet to demonstrate any real expansion.

On the Daily chart, the middle chart or our Leadership Indicator has IWM underperforming the S&P 500 benchmark. The Real Motion or momentum indicator at the bottom illustrates a bullish divergence. Hence, IWM must get moving in price for a more roseate second-½-of-the-year setup.

Now, add in the uncertainties around the world such as weather (drought and floods), Russia (is it over?), China (more chip wars), global inflation (still sticky), supply chain (de-globalization), labor (wages rising), and social unrest (France), and the one-way call for disinflation seems way too one-way. Flexible and active traders will prevail for the next 6 months.

Other than some volatility in the commodities area along with the recent healthy correction, we still maintain a stagflation environment will persist until 2025.

Looking at the 30-year cycles in commodities versus stocks (going back to 1933), the next 15 years starting this week, are projected to see commodities outperforming by potentially more than 3:1.

We are watching the 20+ year long bonds (TLT) for clues. So far, the bonds have not moved much. A rally from current levels (over 104) and we will become more defensive in equities. And, most likely, more friendly to commodities and precious metals.

Finally, we have eyes on the U.S. Dollar versus the Euro. The dollar stopped right at the resistance level of .92. Under .90, we would expect more dollar weakness.

Last week’s daily’s were filled with trading ideas including in the oil, energy, materials, and transportation sectors. Don’t miss a Market Beat-sign up for the free updates now!

Mish in the Media

Mish runs through bonds, modern family, commodities ahead of PCE on Benzinga.

Mish explains her bullish call on Bitcoin and provides her price target for the cryptocurrency in this video appearance on CNBC Asia.

Mish shares why the transportation ETF is such an important measure of economic strength and how retail stocks (XRT) continue to underwhelm on the Tuesday, June 27 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar with David Keller.

Mish discusses how business have been watching Russia in this appearance on Business First AM.

Read Mish’s commentary on how the situation in Russia impacts the markets in this article from Kitco.

Watch Mish’s 45-minute coaching session for MarketGauge’s comprehensive product for discretionary traders, the Complete Trader.

On the Friday, June 23 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, Mish covers a variety of stocks and ETFs, with eyes on the retail sector for best clues in market direction.

Read Mish’s interview with CMC Markets for “Tricks of the Trade: Interviews with World-Class Traders” here!

Mish delves into the potential next market moves for several key markets, including USD/JPY, Gold and West Texas crude oil in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish and Dale Pinkert cover the macro, the geopolitical backdrop, commodities, and stocks to watch on FACE Live Market Analysis and Interviews.

Mish and Ashley discuss buying raw materials and keeping an eye on Biotech on Fox Business’s Making Money with Charles Payne.

Coming Up:

June 29: Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial (12pm ET) & CNBC Asia (9pm ET)

June 30: Benzinga Pre-Market Prep

July 6: Yahoo Finance

July 7: TD Ameritrade

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): Needs one more push or begins to look a bit toppy based on lethargic momentum.Russell 2000 (IWM): 190-193 still the overhead resistance to clear.Dow (DIA): 33,500 major support to hold.Nasdaq (QQQ): Still working off a reversal top until it takes out 372.85.Regional banks (KRE): Need a new move over 42.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 support.Transportation (IYT): 250 resistance and a potential correction/mean reversion in store.Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range.Retail (XRT): 63 support.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In Technically Challanging Environment; Price Action Against These Levels Crucial
  • Market in New Uptrend After Late-Week Rally
  • Moxie Indicator Alerts: Predicting Yesterday’s Market Pullback!
  • The SCTR Report: Why TSLA Stock Sees Tremendous Strength
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Trump takes aim at ‘crooked’ Biden student loan plan after Supreme Court decision: ‘Trying to buy votes’
next post
Week Ahead: NIFTY Makes A Strong Attempt To Breakout; Extending The Move Is Crucial

You may also like

The Second Half Equities Super Bowl

July 1, 2023

These Riskier Areas Start the New Year RALLY!

January 4, 2025

HYG Shares Outstanding Showing Excessive Enthusiasm

December 15, 2023

What’s the Downside Risk for QQQ?

March 15, 2024

The Ord Oracle October 3, 2023

October 4, 2023

Why Bonds and Gold Are Outperforming Stocks

August 12, 2024

Emerging Market Bond Fund ETFs Look Good

July 15, 2023

Will Bitcoin Go the Way of a Commodity or an...

October 14, 2023

MarketCarpets Secrets: How to Spot Winning Stocks in Minutes!

November 18, 2024

DP Trading Room: New Golden & Silver Cross Indexes

January 30, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp up Max production, CEO says

      May 29, 2025
    • Nuclear Power Trio: OKLO, SMR, and CCJ in Focus

      May 29, 2025
    • Analyzing SIL, USO, and NVDA: Could These Bullish Patterns Trigger?

      May 29, 2025
    • E.l.f. Beauty to acquire Hailey Bieber skin care brand Rhode in up to $1 billion deal

      May 29, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,763 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,470 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,449 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,428 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,306 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,104)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp...

      May 29, 2025
    • Nuclear Power Trio: OKLO, SMR, and CCJ in Focus

      May 29, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,104)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    S&P 500 Makes a New All-Time...

    April 27, 2024

    Price Reversals from Recent Highs in...

    February 7, 2023

    What’s the Downside Risk for QQQ?

    March 15, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here