• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock The First Half of 2023 Was Very Bullish, But What Should We Expect in the Second Half?
Stock

The First Half of 2023 Was Very Bullish, But What Should We Expect in the Second Half?

by July 2, 2023
by July 2, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Have you noticed how every roadblock the bears use against the bulls just quietly goes away over time? I just chuckle. There have been SO many bullish signals over the past year, but pessimists/bears don’t give in easily and that’s actually good for the stock market as the non-believers help to fuel the market higher. Looking back over the past year, I’ve heard the bears lay out so many reasons why the stock market recovery would fail. Here’s a starter list:

Inflation will run rampantHigher interest rates will thwart the economyThe pace of rate hikes is too muchThe daily charts are bearishThe weekly charts are bearishThe monthly charts are bearishThe (fill in the blank) charts are bearishDon’t fight the FedGrowth stocks aren’t participating (Q4 2022)The 2023 rally is too narrow, breadth stinksPE ratios are too highIt’s short coveringSmall caps aren’t participatingTransports aren’t participatingA major recession is comingThere’s an inverted yield curveGo away in MayThe VIX is too lowand my personal favorite, We’re in a bubble!

Am I wrong? Haven’t you seen every one of these in the bearish “click bait” headlines in the media? That last one is a “last gasp” attempt to will the market lower. We rarely have true bubbles that desperately need deflating. This ain’t one of them. Most cries about a bubble result from those who have missed a big rally. Rather than admit defeat and that their bearish thoughts and strategies are wrong, they double down and call the rally a bubble. After all, if they thought prices were too high eight months ago, of course they’re going to think prices are WAY too high 30% or 40% or 50% later. Since June 2022, however, my signals have told me ONE thing consistently. We’re going higher. And higher and higher we’ve gone. While the S&P 500 is up nearly 29% since October 13, 2022, the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is up over 45%! Go ahead, call it a bear market rally, if you’d like. I know better.

One thing I’ve learned from studying history is that when a bear market ends, the biggest gains are enjoyed during the first year of the new bull market advance and that’s the gain that most bears miss. They can’t see it coming and use all of the excuses shown above to argue their erroneous position.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?

We’ve had 14 bear markets on the S&P 500 since 1950 and 7 of them (50%) have ended during the month of October. The S&P 500 low was touched in October 2022, October 13th to be exact. Since that day, the S&P 500 has risen 998.40 points, or 28.92%. Among the prior 10 cyclical bear markets, the average ensuing 1-year return from the cyclical bear market bottom has been 41.74%. If we simply see a 1-year rebound that equals the average of the prior 10, the S&P 500 would be projected to be 4892.84 on October 13, 2023. Currently, the all-time high stands at 4818.62 and we’re well on our way to eclipsing it in 2023.

The following is an Excel spreadsheet that highlights prior secular and cyclical bear markets, and their 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year recoveries from the bear market low:

I’ve separated cyclical bear markets and secular bear markets, so that you can see how the S&P has reacted to each over the past 73 years (since 1950). Those columns that are blank mean that not enough time has elapsed since the respective bear market bottom ended to calculate returns for the periods indicated. Given that the 2022 cyclical bear market was roughly “average” compared to all cyclical bear markets, perhaps we should be expecting a similar 1-year and 2-year rebound. That would imply an S&P 500 close of 4892.84 on October 13, 2023 and 5423.90 on October 13, 2024. To argue these numbers, you’re fighting history.

Understanding history, and profiting from it, is super important in becoming and remaining a successful investor/trader. Many times, it’s honestly nothing more than maintaining a healthy dose of perspective. On Thursday, July 6th, at 7pm ET, I’ll be hosting our next “Bulls-Eye Forecast: Mid-Year Update” event. No one has forecast the S&P 500’s future direction better than we have at EarningsBeats.com. I want you to join me. First, let me say that it’s FREE. Second, I’ll repeat that – it’s FREE!!!! Is that not enough incentive? Ok, well let me sweeten the offer. When you sign up for this event, I’ll send you a bonus “Money Flows” pdf report that you can immediately download. There’s tremendous historical information that’s included and that EVERY single trader should be aware of. Register for the BIGGEST EVENT OF 2023 and receive your FREE “Money Flows” report by CLICKING HERE. Register NOW as seating is limited!

Happy trading!

Tom

You Might Also Like
  • Master Multiple Time Frame Analysis With This Simple Method
  • Week Ahead: Low VIX May Keep NIFTY Vulnerable To Profit-Taking Bouts; These Sectors May Offer Resilience
  • Check These Out: Buyable Pullbacks Under the Surface!
  • Market Has Stress Fractures but No Clear Breaks
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Maryland law allowing recreational marijuana takes effect
next post
Bullish Tidings: Breadth Rallies, Oil Service Makes its Move, Bonds Survive Yield Scare

You may also like

DP Trading Room: Deceptive Volume Spikes

December 23, 2024

Consumer Spending Remains Strong – Here Are 3 Stocks For...

October 28, 2023

What Would It Take For Small Caps To Lead?

January 16, 2025

Markets Surge Post-Election: Is It Time to Go All-In?

November 7, 2024

An Enticing Gold Mining Stock with a Strong SCTR Score

January 30, 2025

Nothing “CRYPTIC” About These Go Trends!

January 13, 2024

Ready for the Pullback

February 10, 2023

3 Health Care Stocks Flashing Promising Golden Cross: Why You...

January 10, 2024

DP Trading Room: Two Industry Groups To Watch!

May 6, 2024

Downside for Bitcoin as Cryptos Crumble

March 11, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Oil prices rise more than 1% as Israel vows to intensify attacks on Iran

      June 20, 2025
    • RRG Alert Tech Vaults to ‘Leading’—Is XLK Signaling a New Rally?

      June 20, 2025
    • Apple looking to make ‘premium’-priced folding iPhones starting next year, analyst says

      June 20, 2025
    • Nike pushes back Skims launch with Kim Kardashian due to production delays

      June 19, 2025
    • The Fed Is Getting It Wrong AGAIN As They Hold Rates Steady

      June 19, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 3,599 views
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,875 views
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,578 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,541 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,417 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,142)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,621)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Oil prices rise more than 1% as Israel vows to...

      June 20, 2025
    • RRG Alert Tech Vaults to ‘Leading’—Is XLK Signaling a New...

      June 20, 2025
    • Apple looking to make ‘premium’-priced folding iPhones starting next year,...

      June 20, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,142)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,621)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    After a 29% Bounce, Can SMCI...

    December 3, 2024

    Speaking of AI — A Look...

    June 15, 2023

    MEM TV: Best Ways for You...

    September 16, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here