• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock The GDP PCE ADP Waltz
Stock

The GDP PCE ADP Waltz

by August 30, 2023
by August 30, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Conference Board Economic Forecast: 

Looking into 2024, we expect the volatility that dominated the US economy over the pandemic period to diminish. In the second half of 2024, we forecast that overall growth will return to more stable pre-pandemic rates, inflation will drift closer to 2 percent, and the Fed will lower rates to near 4 percent. However, due to an aging labor force we expect tightness in the labor market to remain an ongoing challenge for the foreseeable future.

Yesterday, we had this to say about Bonds:

“The good news is the market has absorbed the bond’s performance. A better risk-on environment is when the SPY outperforms the long bonds.

“Talking technically, we are watching the October 2022 lows carefully. A potential double bottom exists if TLTs can clear back able 98. A move under 95, though, points more to a retest and possible break of the low 91.85.”

The whole market rallied, from bonds to small caps to metals and oil. Clearly, the economic statistics coming at us with blinding speed, more of a can-can than a waltz, has begun. Can everything move up together, or will the rally today resolve lower for some instruments while higher for others?

The relief rally in bonds, coupled with the dollar reversing closer weaker, helped everything run higher. If you watch the clip from The Final Bar that Mish guest-hosted alongside Keith, we showed you how this rally could happen, especially with volatility look like anything but volatility.

In the spirit of the forecasts, the expectation for 2024 remains for lower inflation, no recession, steady growth and a Fed that will begin to ease up on rates.

Sounds amazing right?

Enter the Dragon.

Silver is in a bullish phase. It is also outperforming the gold market, using the ETFs SLV and GLD. Furthermore, on the leadership indicator, silver is nowhere near overbought relative to gold. The gold-silver ratio has fallen below the 80 level, suggesting that silver will outperform gold prices going forward. Two reasons why are stimulus measures in China and robust industrial demand, as the U.S. looks to spend $45 million to develop domestic manufacturing with the solar power sector. Historically, silver often outperformed gold during periods of strong economic expansion and tended to underperform gold during periods of economic stress.  

With inflation persistent, we will continue to watch bonds and the gold to silver ratio. Plus, we are still focused on small-caps and IWM clearing 190. In the meantime, you all have a wonderful rest of the week and long weekend.

Mish is taking a few days off and will return September 5th.

Happy Labor Day weekend!

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish served as guest host for the Monday, August 28 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar! Mish puts her own spin on the Market Recap, starting with the indices and then exploring sectors using her “Economic Modern Family” analysis. She then sits down with Keith Schneider for an insightful interview. Keith discusses topics such as agricultural commodities, biotechnology, and volatility.

Mish and Charles discuss a secular bear market in bonds and why gold could outshine expectations in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish and Paul Gruenwald discuss soft landings, recession, inflation, GDP and China on Yahoo Finance.

Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments and outlines their possible direction of travel in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks NVDA and “Trading the Weather” in these two appearances on Business First AM.

Coming Up:

Mish will be on break starting August 30 and return Tuesday, September 5th.

September 7: Singapore Breakfast Radio, 89.3 FM

September 12: BNN Bloomberg & Charting Forward, StockCharts TV

September 13: Investing with IBD podcast

October 29-31: The Money Show

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 440 support, 458 resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): 185 pivotal, 190 has to clear.Dow (DIA): 347 now pivotal support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 363 support and over 375 looks good.Regional banks (KRE): Needs to hold 44 to be convincing.Semiconductors (SMH): 150-161 range to watch.Transportation (IYT): 252 biggest overhead resistance.Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 124-130.Retail (XRT): 62.90 key support to hold.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • Analyzing Investor Sentiment for Gold
  • High-Yield Opportunities for an Uncertain Market
  • Sector Rotation Analysis Still Quite Bullish
  • The Halftime Show: Sharing “Secret” Chaikin Lists
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Long Call Vs. Short Put
next post
Growth Stocks Shine in Short-Covering Rally

You may also like

An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum

March 23, 2024

MEM TV: Earnings Season Pumps Markets

April 15, 2023

Chart and Trend Signals Align for Datadog

June 24, 2023

A Risk-off Alternative Turns Up as Stocks Falter

March 17, 2023

Real Problems in Real Estate

February 27, 2023

Lead Prices Foretell CPI Changes

April 21, 2023

Will Technology Drive S&P Higher in October?

October 3, 2024

An Awesome Breakthrough in S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Will the...

July 5, 2024

Transform Your Investing Strategy: Uncover the 3 Game-Changing Rules

March 10, 2025

RRG-Velocity jumping on XLF tail

August 23, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout, pulls outlook

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025
    • The Unpredictable Stock Market: How to Make Sense of It

      May 8, 2025
    • AMD CEO calls China a ‘large opportunity’ and warns against strict U.S. chip controls

      May 7, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,630 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,339 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,320 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,302 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,186 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Krispy Kreme stock plunges after doughnut chain pauses McDonald’s rollout,...

      May 8, 2025
    • Don’t Buy Robinhood Stock… Until You See This Chart Setup

      May 8, 2025
    • UnitedHealthcare sued by shareholders over reaction to CEO’s killing

      May 8, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,066)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,530)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Here’s How To Find The Best...

    January 19, 2025

    Week Ahead: Short Week May Not...

    March 25, 2024

    The Best Five Sectors, #5

    January 31, 2025
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here