• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Economy Fox News Power Rankings: Trump freezes his lead as Haley rises in a narrow field
Economy

Fox News Power Rankings: Trump freezes his lead as Haley rises in a narrow field

by November 1, 2023
by November 1, 2023 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Iowa voters are less than three months away from casting their ballots for a presidential nominee, but the GOP primary has taken a backseat to foreign conflict and chaos on Capitol Hill, solidifying Trump’s lead in a narrowing field.

Frontrunner: Trump

Days after the second Republican debate, a surprise attack on Israel by the terrorist group Hamas turned the world’s attention to the Middle East. With Israel putting more pressure on Gaza and a rising death toll, this conflict has been the top story ever since.

There’s little daylight between Trump and his chief rivals on the U.S. response. The former president has a history of pro-Israel policy making, led by the Abraham Accords and an embassy move from Tel Aviv to the U.S.-recognized capital city of Jerusalem. (That move dismayed Palestinians, who claim that at least part of Jerusalem is their own capital, not Israel’s.)

The upshot is that there are fewer opportunities for Trump’s challengers to get noticed on the campaign trail, right at the moment when voters in the early states would normally start paying more attention to the race.

That is ideal for any leading candidate, but especially one with the margins that Trump continues to enjoy. Nationally, Trump sits at 59% and 58% in recent Fox News and Suffolk surveys. His support is softer in the early states, but has never dipped beneath the low 40s.

Trump also reminded Republicans that he holds the keys to the GOP base during this month’s speaker battle. He helped tank House Republican Whip Tom Emmer’s bid for the speakership in a matter of hours, while cheering on the eventual winner, Rep. Mike Johnson.

Johnson is one of Trump’s closest allies, and aided Trump in his efforts to overturn results from key states after the 2020 election.

Challengers: DeSantis & Haley

Trump’s commanding lead and influence does not mean the race is over. The second place candidate in Iowa, or ‘Iowa Silver,’ has a narrow opportunity to reshape the race in the weeks between those caucuses and Super Tuesday.

(For more on this, see analysis with Fox News Decision Desk Director Arnon Mishkin from this weekend.)

Two candidates have positioned themselves to take that opportunity.

First, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is locked in at second place in these rankings, maintains double-digit support in recent Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina polls, and has the highest favorability of the field in Iowa, where a new Des Moines Register/NBC News poll was released this week.

He also has an edge against the rest of the field nationally.

And DeSantis is a resilient fundraiser, bringing in $11.2 million between July and September. That is a 44% decline from his second quarter (April-June) figures, but after Trump, it’s still the most money raised out of any candidate.

Former Governor Nikki Haley moves up to third in the rankings, on the back of a strong month on the trail:

Haley is tied with DeSantis in Iowa (DMR/NBC), leads in New Hampshire (Suffolk/Boston Globe), and has the support of 22% of voters in South Carolina (CNN/SSRS). She lags in some national polls.Along with DeSantis, she had a strong second debate performance.59% of voters in Iowa have a favorable view of her, putting her near Trump and DeSantis (and Scott, who has other problems) (DMR/NBC).

The last point is important for the Haley team. Her position on key issues in the race, particularly America’s role in world events, is not shared by a majority of GOP voters. That has helped Haley position herself as a real alternative to Trump, but also limits her appeal to the base.

Maintaining a high favorable rating shows that despite those differences, a majority of voters are still open to considering her.

Finally, the pathway for ‘Iowa Silver’ got a little wider on Saturday, when former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign.

As this column has argued before, Pence’s best shot was with evangelicals in Iowa, but that support never materialized, and the broader Republican base defined him by his decision to certify the results of the 2020 election.

His exit should provide a very modest boost to Haley, who sits closer to Pence’s ideology than she does to Trump’s or DeSantis’.

Growing pains: Ramaswamy, Christie & Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy moves down to fourth in these rankings. He has a strong national profile and continues to excel at earned media, but it hasn’t helped him in Iowa, where he received 4% in the same DMR/NBC poll.

The source of the problem is his high unfavorable ratings: in that survey, he comes out as the third most disliked candidate in the field. 37% of voters say they have a mostly or very unfavorable view of him, topped only by Christie & Hutchinson.

The entrepreneur has a clearly defined lane – ‘I can go further than Trump’ – but most Republican voters like the former president’s platform as is, and those who don’t like it are looking for a strong alternative to Trump, not a more concentrated version of the ‘MAGA’ ideology.

Despite his very high unfavorable ratings, former Gov. Chris Christie moves up to fifth place in these rankings. Like Ramaswamy, Christie’s lane is narrow but clearly defined – the 20-25% of GOP voters who don’t like Trump – and that minority is steadfast in their opposition to him.

Senator Tim Scott, who moves from fifth place to sixth, has the opposite problem. He is well-liked by the broad Republican electorate, but hasn’t done enough to persuade them to vote for him.

As this column pointed out in September, his policy and messaging looks fairly similar to Haley’s, and his fellow South Carolinian moved early with a fiery performance in the first debate to capture the bulk of voters looking for that style of candidacy.

Scott adopted her strategy in the second debate, but didn’t move the needle. He is hovering around the 1-3% mark nationally, and now trails Haley by 16 points in his home state (CNN/SSRS).

He remains a contender in Iowa, where he polls at 7%, so if Haley stumbles before January, he is the best placed candidate to absorb her votes.

Outsiders: Burgum, Hutchinson & Binkley

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum still leads the bottom tier of the rankings. Most GOP voters said they hadn’t heard of him after he appeared at the first debate, and he hasn’t seen any more support after the second.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is polling at 1% in Iowa (DMR/NBC) and less than 1% nationally (Suffolk). His pathway through the primary is less clear than Pence’s was.

Ryan Binkley joins the rankings in last place. The businessman and pastor has no governing experience or national profile, but has opened his checkbook, spending over $5 million since July. He polled at 0% in the same Iowa survey.

The countdown to Iowa continues

75 days from now, Iowa voters will give these candidates their first chance to win delegates. They will need more than an estimated 1,236 delegates over the course of the primaries to win the nomination. 

In the meantime, five candidates say they have qualified for the next Republican debate, on November 8: DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie, and Scott.

Ramaswamy and DeSantis have signed up for inter-party debates: Ramaswamy will face progressive U.S. House Rep Ro Khanna, D-Calif., tonight in New Hampshire, and DeSantis has agreed to debate another Californian, Governor Gavin Newsom, in a special edition of ‘Hannity’ on November 30.

Stay tuned to Fox News Channel for breaking news from the trail, exclusive interviews, and powerful analysis as Democracy 24 continues.

Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
You Might Also Like
  • Potential speaker candidates emerge from shadows as Jordan’s bid falters
  • On challenging Biden to debates, Trumps tells Ingraham ‘I’ll do it right now on your show’
  • Hunter Biden’s ‘sugar brother’ keeps the first son afloat amid multiple scandals
  • Nikki Haley hit from all sides after omitting ‘slavery’ from Civil War response
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Is the Biden administration preparing for the wrong kind of war with Iran?
next post
Grand Canyon University, largest for-profit college, fined $37.7 million

You may also like

‘Nothing but hypocrisy’: House GOP doubtful DOJ will charge Garland...

June 13, 2024

Harris closes in on Trump in election betting markets

July 28, 2024

‘Special Report’ Spotlight: Is US power grid ready for summer?

June 2, 2023

Activists move to dismiss legal challenge to Ohio’s congressional map

September 6, 2023

What happens in the event of Raisi’s death? An Iran...

May 20, 2024

Republicans rate Biden’s handling of the presidency two years in:...

January 20, 2023

McCarthy GOP primary challenger praises eight Republicans who ousted him...

October 31, 2023

Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign raises nearly $50 million since Biden...

July 22, 2024

SafeMoon and Litecoin: New Support Levels and Targets

October 10, 2024

White House eco council at odds over technology central to...

June 28, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past This Level Crucial For Resumption Of Upmove

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,766 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,433 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,309 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past...

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    NYC prosecutor behind Trump indictment has...

    March 31, 2023

    AG Garland pledges to fight voter...

    March 4, 2024

    Kamala Harris offers vague ‘Day 1’...

    August 30, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here