• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Inflation Fell to the Fed’s Target — Or is That a Moving Target?
Stock

Inflation Fell to the Fed’s Target — Or is That a Moving Target?

by January 26, 2024
by January 26, 2024 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

On Friday, the market woke up to great news. Mission accomplished on inflation.

Yahoo Finance reported: “The Fed’s preferred inflation measure — a ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures index that excludes volatile food and energy prices — clocked in at 2.9% for the month of December, beating estimates.” Furthermore, the core PCE inflation rate fell to 1.5% on a three-month annualized basis, its lowest since late 2020. On a six-month basis, it was 1.9% for the second month in a row. Both of those marks are below the Fed’s 2% target. However, the PCE does not include food and energy.

Another headline that hit the news Friday: “Yemeni Houthis hit with a missile a tanker operated on behalf of commodity trading giant Trafigura. The tanker is on fire.”

Oil traded over $78 a barrel. The price cleared the 200-daily moving average and confirmed an accumulation phase. Should oil remain above $78, the next level to watch is $80. Over $80, an emotional trip to $100 is not out of the question. More importantly, that could trigger a bigger move in gold and silver.

Of course, the Fed cannot dot plot war and geopolitical stress… but shouldn’t they?

Click here to get read more on oil, plus receive actionable information of key ETF indices and sectors.

Remember this?

If you do not, this is the chart that overlays CPI from the 1970s with CPI from 2014 until the end of 2023. CPI fell to under 2% in 1976-1977, then turned right back around and screamed. Oil had a lot to do with that.

Here we are. CPI is not quite at 2%, but core PCE is. Should oil continue its run and become more parabolic in nature, then this chart is eerily prescient.

Super cycle of commodities? Not all commodities have to run in a super cycle, like the one that began in 1977 until the peak in 1980. But if oil and metals take charge, along with certain food commodities, then the FED will be stuck.

As for the market that has been counting on rate cuts to keep the equities moving higher? That will present a newer and bigger worry…

Stagflation.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

Come to the Money Show to hear me and many other great folks speak!

Traders World Fintech Awards

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth.

Grow your wealth today and plant your money tree!

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on X @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments, outlining their possible directions of travel.

Mish is a favorite guest in Singapore, where she gets to discuss the macro and how to think about investing in the big picture. In this short clip from Breakfast Bites, Mish talks TSLA.

In this video from Stockpick, Jillian Glickman and Mish discuss economic outlook and current investment picks plus forecasts on inflation

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the equities and futures markets and how she and MarketGauge are positioned right now in this FXTrader interview.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments ahead of today’s US Q4 GDP announcement, outlining their possible directions of travel.

Mish makes up a new ETF (not real) called VAIN, but really discusses the basket of stocks that are worth watching in this appearance on Yahoo! Finance.

Mish discusses Alibaba and how the rumors of China’s impending demise might be a bit exaggerated on Business First AM.

Mish talks all about retail and stock pick Abbvie (ABBV) on Business First AM.

Nicole Petallides and Mish dig deep into trends and stocks to watch for next big moves, as we are in full January trend mode on this video from Schwab Network.

On the Monday, January 22 episode of Your Daily Fivefrom StockCharts TV, Mish sees the potential for consumers to spend more money, from self-help to dieting, to makeup to skincare to fashion — pointing out several relevant stocks and how to trade them.

Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments in this video from CMC Markets, outlining their possible directions of travel.

Mish joins Jason Perz on the Against All Odds playlist, where she covers it all talking the mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, and macro.

Mish’s Market Minute on StockCharts TV returns, all new! Mish and Geoff Bysshe share how the powerful “Calendar Range” StockChartsACP plugin tells you who and what to believe, when to act, and what to trade. The new year is a big “reset” emotionally, and January sets the tone for the next six months AND the year. Every month is “like an inning in baseball,” financial reports focus on quarters, but analysts think in terms of the first half and second half of the year. How can you harness this knowledge to your benefit? Watch to find out!

Coming Up:

January 30: Breakfast Bites, Singapore Radio

February 2: Benzinga Pre-Market Show

February 5: Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe

February 21-23: The Money Show in Las Vegas

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 480 now the pivotal zone.Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold.Dow (DIA): 375 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 408-409 support.Regional banks (KRE): 50 key to hold.Semiconductors (SMH): 184 support.Transportation (IYT): 262 now pivotal.Biotechnology (IBB): 135 pivotal.Retail (XRT): Held support at 65, but still needs to get back over 70.00.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

You Might Also Like
  • AMD Stock Projection: Price Could Soar Over 50%
  • MUST SEE! Top 10 Stock Picks For June 2024
  • Here’s How to Build Your Watch List for the End of Q4 Earnings
  • Today’s Price Action Could Be the Start of a Rally Attempt
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Stock Market Indexes Keep Setting New Highs: How Much Higher?
next post
Trump opposes plan to pressure RNC into making him the GOP’s ‘presumptive nominee’

You may also like

The SCTR Report: Palantir Stock’s Rise Makes It the Hottest...

November 14, 2024

Pinpoint Strong Sectors BEFORE The Masses Notice

September 11, 2024

Why Stocks are STILL the BEST Investment

July 16, 2024

HUGE NEWS! New SharpCharts Workbench Updates + Black Friday Week...

November 21, 2023

MEM TV: S&P 500 Inches Above Resistance

May 26, 2023

Astronomical Daze

June 21, 2024

What NOT To Do as a Trader

August 30, 2023

Silver Cross Index Tops Beneath Signal Line on SPY

March 28, 2025

The Ultimate Relative Strength Chart Shows True Market Leaders

February 11, 2023

Why the NAAIM Exposure Index Matters to Your Investments

February 8, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past This Level Crucial For Resumption Of Upmove

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In A Defined Range; Moving Past...

      May 31, 2025
    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,582)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Stocks In Focus: Three Charts to...

    March 28, 2025

    Sentiment Lopsided – Is It a...

    February 10, 2024

    China Tariffs Drive Upside for Rare...

    May 15, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here