• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Editor's Pick The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected
Editor's Pick

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected

by January 27, 2024
by January 27, 2024 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared with the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

In addition to the better than expected GDP move, there also was some progress on inflation.

Core prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Federal Reserve prefers as a longer-term inflation measure, rose 2% for the period, while the headline rate was 1.7%.

On an annual basis, the PCE price index rose 2.7%, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared with 5.1%.

The two components together added up to “supersonic Goldilocks, because it’s really a strong number yet inflation hasn’t shown up,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. “Everybody wanted to have fun. People bought new cars, a lot of recreation spending as well as taking trips. We’ve been expecting a soft landing for some time. This is just one step in that direction.”

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains and better than the 1.9% increase in 2022.

As had been the case through the year, a strong pace of consumer spending helped drive the expansion. Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8% for the quarter, down just slightly from the previous period.

State and local government spending also contributed, up 3.7%, as did a 2.5% increase in federal government expenditures. Gross private domestic investment rose 2.1%, another significant factor for the robust quarter.

The chain-weighted price index, which accounts for prices as well as changes in consumer behavior, increased 1.5% for the quarter, down sharply from 3.3% in the previous period and below the Wall Street estimate for a 2.5% acceleration.

“This year has been like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots, and the economy is knocking the blocks off the economists, always outperforming,” said Dan North, senior economist with Allianz Trade Americas. Fed Chair Jerome Powell “has got to have a smirk on his face this morning. Again, he’s defying the economists’ predictions with strong growth and inflation clearly coming under control.”

Markets showed only a modest reaction to the report. Stock futures gained slightly while Treasury yields moved lower. Futures markets continued to reflect the likelihood that the Fed will enact its first rate cut in May.

“It was a great report, but you didn’t see the market move much because GDP is backward-looking. It told us what happened in October and November and December,” North said. “It’s great for historical patterns, but it doesn’t really tell us much about where we’re headed.”

In other economic news Thursday, initial jobless claims totaled 214,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week and ahead of the estimate for 199,000, according to the Labor Department.

The GDP report wraps up a year in which most economists were almost certain the U.S. would enter at least a shallow recession. Even the Fed had predicted a mild contraction due to banking industry stress last March.

However, a resilient consumer and a powerful labor market helped propel the economy through the year, which also featured an ongoing pullback in manufacturing and a Fed that kept raising interest rates in its battle to bring down inflation.

As the calendar turns a page to a new year, hopes have shifted away from a recession as markets anticipate the Fed will start cutting rates while inflation continues to drift back to its 2% goal.

Concerns remain, however, that the economy faces more challenges ahead.

Some of the worries center around the lagged effects of monetary policy, specifically the 11 interest rate hikes totaling 5.25 percentage points that the Fed approved between March 2022 and July 2023. Conventional economic wisdom is that it can take as long as two years for such policy tightening to make its way through the system, so that could contribute to slowness ahead.

Other angst centers around how long consumers can keep spending as savings dwindle and high-interest debt loads accrue. Finally, there’s the nature of what is driving the boom beyond the consumer: Government deficit spending has been a significant contributor to growth, with the total federal IOU at $34 trillion and counting. The budget deficit has totaled more than half a trillion dollars for the first three months of fiscal 2024.

There also are political worries as the U.S. enters the heart of the presidential election campaign, and geopolitical fears with violence in the Middle East and the continuing bloody Ukraine war.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
You Might Also Like
  • McDonald’s announces plan to hire 375,000 employees this summer
  • Millions of college students in limbo after aid application information is delayed until March
  • From department store to ice rink: How shuttering Macy’s will spur a shopping mall rebrand
  • Boeing did not retain security camera footage showing work on Max jet door that blew out, NTSB says
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Is This a Breakout or a Pullback?
next post
Magnificent 7 Stocks: Overheated or Just Getting Started?

You may also like

This Missouri city is a prime spot to see the...

April 8, 2024

Ring home security customers will get refunds over security-lapse claims

April 26, 2024

UAW strike begins at Mercedes-Benz supplier in Alabama as Detroit’s...

September 24, 2023

ESPN hopes to reach more casual sports fans with Disney+...

December 5, 2024

Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter. The election seems to...

November 27, 2024

KORE Collaborates with Google Cloud to Deliver IoT Solutions

December 6, 2022

Apple boosts U.S. investment plans with $500 billion pledge amid...

February 24, 2025

Paramount Global lays off about 800 employees, a day after...

February 15, 2024

Trump Media jumps more than 9% after CEO asks House...

April 25, 2024

Amazon same-day prescription delivery expanding to nearly half of U.S....

October 9, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Want Faster, Lower Risk Trades? Use This Setup

      July 9, 2025
    • The Seasonality Trend Driving XLK and XLI to New Highs

      July 9, 2025
    • Small Caps Are Rotating In — Here’s Why It Matters

      July 9, 2025
    • Amazon extends Prime Day discounts to 4 days as retailers weigh tariffs and price increases

      July 9, 2025
    • Breakout Watch: One Stock in Each Sector to Watch Now

      July 9, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 3,630 views
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,919 views
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,607 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,575 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,449 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,167)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,660)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Want Faster, Lower Risk Trades? Use This Setup

      July 9, 2025
    • The Seasonality Trend Driving XLK and XLI to New Highs

      July 9, 2025
    • Small Caps Are Rotating In — Here’s Why It Matters

      July 9, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,167)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,660)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Uber delivery chief Gore-Coty is leaving...

    June 3, 2025

    Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants...

    May 2, 2024

    Willow Bay and Bob Iger to...

    July 18, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here