Trump leads Biden among voters who favored Biden by 10 points in 2020: poll

Voters in a new poll who favored President Biden by 10 points in 2020 have shifted their support to former President Donald Trump, who now leads among the same voters by five points.

The poll, which was conducted by the New York Times and Siena College from Feb. 25 to 28, shows Trump with a 48-43 edge over Biden, a slightly larger lead than two-point edge the former president held in the same poll when it was conducted in December.

The lead comes despite many of the registered voters sampled indicating they voted for Biden in 2020, with 44% of respondents saying they voted for the president in the last election, compared to 33% who indicated they voted for Trump.

The poll shows that Trump has done better work shoring up his base, with 97% of respondents who indicated they voted for him in 2020 saying they plan to do the same this year. Meanwhile, Biden is only garnering the support of 83% of those who say they voted for him in 2020, while 10% indicated they plan to vote for Trump this time around.

Those numbers weren’t the only bad news for the president in the poll, which also showed Trump as having a six-point lead (46%-40%) among Hispanic voters, a demographic that until recent years had been a dependable bloc for Democrats. 

Biden is also struggling with working-class voters of color, who according to exit polls, voted in large numbers (72%) for the president in 2020, with only 22% of the group supporting Trump. But that gap has shrunk significantly, the poll found, with Biden only holding a 47%-41% advantage among the same group today.

The president also faces an enthusiasm gap compared to Trump, with only 23% saying they would be enthusiastic if Biden were to become the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, 48% of respondents indicated they would feel enthusiastic about Trump securing the Republican nomination.

But the news wasn’t all bad for the president, who polled better with critical independent voters, who currently are split 42%-42% on who they would support between Biden and Trump. Voters also showed concerns about the criminal cases playing out around Trump, with 53% indicating they believe the former president committed serious federal crimes.

The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled 980 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of sampling error at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.