• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Economy 2024 Showdown: Biden’s bump has flatlined in the polls
Economy

2024 Showdown: Biden’s bump has flatlined in the polls

by May 3, 2024
by May 3, 2024 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

It was a poll that rattled the campaign world, disrupting the recent narrative that President Biden was closing the gap with former President Trump in the 2024 election rematch.

A survey that went viral on Sunday indicated Trump topping his Democratic successor by six points in a head-to-head match-up and by nine points in a five-candidate ballot that included Democrat turned independent contender Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive professor Cornel West.

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS was instantly used as evidence by pundits – and as ammunition by Trump and his team – of the waning of the perceived polling bump the president enjoyed coming out of his well-regarded and aggressive State of the Union address in early March – when he went for the jugular in primetime with numerous salvos fired at his Republican predecessor.

Trump enjoyed the polling edge over Biden in an average of national horserace surveys dating back to last October, but the president’s numbers edged up in the weeks after the State of the Union address.

‘Biden’s position in the polls is improving against Trump,’ polling analyst Nate Silver said last month.

But Daron Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas who serves as a member of the Fox News Decision Team and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, is skeptical.

‘If you want to really parse one-to-two-point shifts one way or the other, then I suppose if you squint very hard, you can convince yourself that he [Biden] bumped up one or two, and now he’s lost one of that,’ Shaw said.

Shaw, who served as a top strategist on former President George W. Bush’s 2000 and 2004 campaigns, emphasized that ‘the race has been fairly steady over much of the past nine months.’

Veteran pollster Chris Anderson, another member of the Fox News Election Decision Team, and the Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, said that any bump was a small one.

‘There seemed to be, at the very least, a stabilization after the State of the Union,’ which tempered earlier perceptions of a Trump advantage.

And showcasing recent Fox News polls in the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, Anderson noted, ‘There were signs in there of a little bit of progress for Biden, but again it’s really small.’ 

While national surveys garner plenty of attention, the race for the White House is a battle for the states and their electoral votes, which places a spotlight on battleground state polling.

Analysts argue over how much the State of the Union address fueled the slight rise in the polls by Biden.

‘Simply Democrats coming home naturally, which they’ll probably do, versus State of the Union stuff,’ Shaw argued. ‘The main thing about the State of the Union was that it sort of stopped a conversation that was corrosive to Biden, that he’s too old and too feeble and not up to the task. That’s still there, but at least there are not daily stories about it. That was, I think, the success of the State of the Union.’

The CNN poll was followed a couple of days later by a Marist College survey for NPR and the PBS NewsHour that indicated Biden edging Trump by two-points in a head-to-head match-up, and tied with his GOP challenger in a five-candidate field.

A Quinnipiac University national survey in the field at the same time as CNN’s survey indicated Biden and Trump tied in both head-to-head and five-candidate showdowns, while an NBC News poll conducted a few days earlier put Trump up by two in a two-person race and Biden with a two-point edge when the third party and independent candidates were added.

With six months to go until Election Day, Shaw wondered whether the current polling dynamic would dramatically shift, baring major developments. 

Pointing to ‘an era of hyper-polarization where you’ve got two candidates who’ve already run against each other,’ Shaw noted that many voters already ‘know everything about both these two guys.’

‘So why would you expect much movement? What is it about this campaign that’s going to educate voters? Which is usually what’s happened in the past and why the numbers move around,’ he said.

Anderson agreed, spotlighting ‘that’s likely to be the story of this election as we go through, that the movement that we’re going to see is likely to be in the margins because so many people are locked in.’

Six months out, Anderson said, ‘it’s not looking good for Biden, but at the same time, you can see how his base comes home, and he pulls his coalition back together and is suddenly a couple of points higher than he is now.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
You Might Also Like
  • GOP lawmakers rip Hunter Biden’s cozy relationship with CCP-linked businessman: ‘Damning evidence’
  • Nikki Haley to thank donors, but Trump’s last GOP rival not expected to endorse former president
  • Trump’s 2024 GOP rivals weigh in on former president’s January 6 probe indictment
  • Santos vows to file ethics complaints against multiple lawmakers hours after expulsion from House
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
‘No leadership’: Resurfaced post comes back to haunt Biden after anti-Israel protests sweep the nation
next post
All GOP senators press Biden not to support expanding WHO pandemic authority

You may also like

Gaetz, who ousted McCarthy, weighs in on Republicans selecting Mike...

October 25, 2023

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu: Dogecoin is in a mild bearish...

October 24, 2024

Ted Cruz rips Buttigieg at CPAC: ‘What the hell does...

March 3, 2023

Biden jokes he was ’12’ when he first met Israeli...

July 25, 2024

Harris suggests ‘consequences’ are on the table for Israel if...

March 25, 2024

As N.Y. Times investigates leaks, liberal newsrooms have the upper...

April 18, 2024

50 Democrats, 15 Republicans vote ‘no’ on bill aimed at...

March 14, 2024

Cotton slams Harris as ‘naive’ on Iran, blasts VP for...

August 11, 2024

Biden garners 67K TikTok followers on first day using Chinese-owned...

February 14, 2024

Celebrities have ‘incredibly powerful’ ability to influence election: Harvard study

August 15, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025
    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp up Max production, CEO says

      May 29, 2025
    • Nuclear Power Trio: OKLO, SMR, and CCJ in Focus

      May 29, 2025
    • Analyzing SIL, USO, and NVDA: Could These Bullish Patterns Trigger?

      May 29, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,764 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,470 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,450 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,431 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,307 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,105)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’...

      May 30, 2025
    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp...

      May 29, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,105)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Tesla stock up nearly 7% in...

    November 19, 2024

    What Deeper Lessons Can We Learn...

    January 4, 2023

    US Defense officials say more large...

    January 23, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here