• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Economy Who has the ‘Keys to the White House’? Historian with ace record calling elections weighs in on Trump verdict
Economy

Who has the ‘Keys to the White House’? Historian with ace record calling elections weighs in on Trump verdict

by June 12, 2024
by June 12, 2024 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Former President Trump’s criminal conviction in his historic New York trial may have thrown the 2024 presidential election into unprecedented upheaval – or it may not have, according to Dr. Allan Lichtman.

The American University historian, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, told Fox News Digital that instant analysis of Trump’s conviction is meaningless as the country looks forward to Election Day. ‘We’re not going to know much until the sentencing hearing on July 11, right before the Republican convention,’ Lichtman said in an interview. 

Allowing himself to speculate, the proven prognosticator said Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records does not appear to have fundamentally cracked his base, which Trump will need united to defeat President Biden in November. But no one knows, neither Lichtman nor the pundits he perennially outperforms, how Americans outside Trump’s base will react to a convicted criminal on the presidential ballot.

‘We don’t know how this might affect moderate and swing independent voters. So really, we have got to look over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry,’ said Lichtman. 

Lichtman is a historian, not a psychic. The formula he’s used to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his ‘Keys to the White House,’ was developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and is based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The secret to his success, Lichtman says, is to keep his own personal preferences out of his predictions.

‘We reconceptualize presidential elections not as Carter versus Reagan, Republican versus Democrat, liberal versus conservative, but in geophysical terms,’ he explained. ‘Stability: The White House party keeps power. Earthquake: The White House party is turned out.’ 

The ‘keys’ consist of 13 true or false questions, parameters that, if true, favor stability. When eight or more of the keys are false, the incumbent White House party is the predicted loser. This formula helped Lichtman correctly predict that Trump would prevail in 2016, when the polls, debate performances and political commentators all favored Democrat Hillary Clinton. Previously, he said President Barack Obama would win re-election when Republican Mitt Romney was favored. And he correctly called the 2020 election for Biden. 

‘The keys are an alternative to the polls, which are not predictors. They’re snapshots, they’re abused, not used as predictors. And the pundits, you know, who are a lot of fun, but they’re sports talk radio. They have no scientific basis for any of their predictions,’ Lichtman argued.

The 2024 election is still in flux, and so Lichtman has not made a final projection for this year. But a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose to Trump, he claims.

Lichtman’s keys are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

As things stand, Biden has definitively lost two of Lichtman’s keys. ‘He’s lost what I call the mandate key based on midterm elections, because the Democrats lost seats in 2022, they needed to win seats to win that key. And he loses the charisma key because he’s no Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy,’ Lichtman said.

If six keys turn against Biden, he is likely to lose. The four keys to watch are whether Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or another third-party candidate wins at least 10% support in national polls; social unrest linked to widespread anti-Israel protests on college campuses, and success or failure for Biden’s foreign policy endeavors amid the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. 

Several Democratic strategists and a number of pundits are losing confidence in Biden’s campaign as polls show Trump ahead in several key swing states. Election data guru and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver suggested Monday that the president’s ‘all-time low’ in approval ratings might be enough justification for him to drop out or for the party to nominate someone else at the Democratic convention in August. 

Lichtman warns that replacing Biden would be a massive unforced error for Democrats.

‘With Biden running, he wins my incumbency key: sitting president. He wins the party contest: uncontested. Essentially, that means he wins two keys off the top,’ Lichtman explained. 

Without Biden on the ticket, the Democrats would automatically lose two more keys, meaning just four more would have to fall to predict their defeat. 

‘This nonsense about Biden stepping down points to the dangers of off-the-top-of-the-head punditry and commentary that is not based on any scientific understanding of how elections work,’ Lichtman said. 

Doom and gloom punditry is part of what Lichtman calls the ‘political industrial complex’ – an iron triangle of pollsters and political consultants who profit from campaigns, news reporters eager to cover negative soundbites and politicians who are afraid to challenge the other two points of the triangle. The horse race theory of elections creates drama and makes money for those involved, Lichtman claims, but it’s not very helpful to inform Americans about the direction of the country. 

‘The keys provide a way of breaking the iron triangle,’ said Lichtman. ‘The candidates themselves have to run different kinds of campaigns,’ he added. ‘Campaign by the keys, which is, you campaign on your vision. If you’re an incumbent, what it is you have done and what you expect to do. If you’re a challenger, what’s your clear vision for America?’ 

Nobody remembers conventional campaigns. The ones that make history, Lichtman argues, are the substantive campaigns that articulated a vision for the country – think Barry Goldwater in 1964, who lost in a landslide but defined conservative principles for generations to come. Or George McGovern, whose liberal principals have shaped the Democratic Party since he was defeated by Richard Nixon in 1972. 

‘Ronald Reagan in 1980 very forthrightly put forth his views on tax cuts, deregulation, building the military, challenging the Soviet Union. And he won, he won big,’ Lichtman said. ‘And that philosophy again influenced politicians, in his case both liberal and conservative, through our time.’ 

Fox News Digital’s Aubrie Spady and Joe Schoffstall contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
You Might Also Like
  • Ex-CIA analyst says intel agencies to be politically active again in 2024 election: ‘Significant problem’
  • Likely GOP primary voters share who had best Republican debate performance: Poll
  • Biden quietly places unconfirmed labor secretary in presidential line of succession, drawing GOP criticism
  • Wisconsin DNR board approves resolution seeking more money from Legislature
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Winners and losers emerge following Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict in gun trial
next post
Potential Supreme Court candidates during a second President Biden term

You may also like

Republicans, some Dem House lawmakers urge Biden to refreeze $6B...

October 12, 2023

McCarthy GOP primary challenger praises eight Republicans who ousted him...

October 31, 2023

‘Obama bro’ confirms claims in Clooney’s damaging op-ed on Biden’s...

July 10, 2024

Fox News Power Rankings: The 2024 GOP presidential frontrunner, challengers...

September 20, 2023

Trump endorsement fails with surprise GOP speaker pick of Scalise...

October 12, 2023

New York City expecting eight more migrant buses days after...

August 9, 2023

Stormy alleges one-night stand with Trump, agreed to lie for...

May 8, 2024

Trump leading Biden ahead of CNN Presidential Debate, support from...

June 27, 2024

Biden ‘must take a cognitive test,’ Trump says after president’s...

March 1, 2024

Republican Senators bash Biden’s $6B Iran deal in push to...

October 9, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Oil prices rise more than 1% as Israel vows to intensify attacks on Iran

      June 20, 2025
    • RRG Alert Tech Vaults to ‘Leading’—Is XLK Signaling a New Rally?

      June 20, 2025
    • Apple looking to make ‘premium’-priced folding iPhones starting next year, analyst says

      June 20, 2025
    • Nike pushes back Skims launch with Kim Kardashian due to production delays

      June 19, 2025
    • The Fed Is Getting It Wrong AGAIN As They Hold Rates Steady

      June 19, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 3,599 views
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,875 views
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,578 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,541 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,417 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,142)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,621)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Oil prices rise more than 1% as Israel vows to...

      June 20, 2025
    • RRG Alert Tech Vaults to ‘Leading’—Is XLK Signaling a New...

      June 20, 2025
    • Apple looking to make ‘premium’-priced folding iPhones starting next year,...

      June 20, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,142)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,621)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Biden parallels? How Carter fared against...

    March 15, 2024

    Iran violently clamps down on Christians...

    March 3, 2024

    Iranian crowd chants ‘death to America’...

    May 22, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here