• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Week Ahead: NIFTY Shows Early Signs Of A Likely Disruption Of Uptrend; Tread Cautiously
Stock

Week Ahead: NIFTY Shows Early Signs Of A Likely Disruption Of Uptrend; Tread Cautiously

by September 7, 2024
by September 7, 2024 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

After initially forming a fresh incremental lifetime high, the markets succumbed to selling pressure from higher levels after spending some indecisive sessions during the week. The week that went by saw some early signs of the Nifty entering into broad corrective consolidation while ending near its low point of the trading range. Given the corrective undertone, the trading range got wider as well; the Nifty 50 oscillated in a 532.35-point trading range. The volatility spiked as well; the volatility barometer India VIX surged by 13.63% to 15.22 on a weekly basis. While setting a distinct corrective undertone, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 383.75 points (-1.52%).

In the previous technical note, it was categorically pointed out that the Nifty stays significantly deviated from its means; the nearest 20-week MA which is at 23795 is 1057 points below the current levels. The 50-week MA which is at 22208 is currently over 2640 points below the current close. Even if the Nifty attempts a modest mean-reversion, it can see this corrective bias getting extended. The derivative data suggests that the Index has dragged its resistance levels lower; the zone of 25000-25250 is now an important resistance for the index. So long as the Nifty is below this zone, it is likely to stay prone to profit-taking bouts from higher levels.

Expect the markets to start the fresh week on a soft and tepid note. The levels of 25075 and 25250 are likely to act as resistance points for Nifty; the supports come in lower at 24600 and 24480 levels.

The weekly RSI stands at 67.74; it has slipped below the 70 levels from the overbought area which is bearish. It however stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and above its signal line; however, the narrowing Histogram hints at an imminent negative crossover in the coming weeks.

A Bearish Engulfing candle has emerged; the occurrence of such a candle following an uptrend has the potential to disrupt the current trend. However, this will need confirmation going ahead from here.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the markets are showing some first signs of fatigue at higher levels. The zone of 25000-25250 has become an immediate resistance zone and until the Nifty moves past this zone convincingly, it is unlikely to show any trending move on the upside. It continues to deviate from its mean; this may keep the index somewhat vulnerable to corrective retracements.

All in all, the markets will likely continue exhibiting tentative behavior; unless the mentioned resistance zone is not taken out convincingly, the Nifty may remain under broad consolidation or corrective pressures. Defensive setup may also remain evident, pockets like IT, Pharma, FMCG, Energy, etc., may do well. Avoiding excessive leveraged exposures and staying highly selective while making fresh purchases is strongly recommended. While vigilantly guarding profits at higher levels, a cautious approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty Pharma, IT, Consumption, and Midcap 100 indices are inside the leading quadrant. Though the Midcap 100 index is giving up on its relative momentum, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets over the coming weeks.

The Nifty Auto and PSE Indicex are inside the weakening quadrant; the PSE pack is showing strong improvement in its relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index.

The Nifty Financial Services, Commodities, Infrastructure, Banknifty, PSU Bank, Metal, the Realty indices continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant are are set to relatively underperform the broader Nifty 500 index. The Nifty Energy Index is also inside the lagging quadrant; however, it is seen sharply improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Media and the Services sector indices are currently placed inside the improving quadrant.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

You Might Also Like
  • AI Boom Meets Tariff Doom: How to Time Semiconductor Stocks
  • Technical and Fundamental Analysis on US Oil Fund
  • How to Use the A-B-C Corrective Pattern to Improve Your Entry Points
  • The Ord Oracle November 13, 2023
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Alan Dershowitz leaves Democratic Party, cites DNC: ‘I was disgusted’
next post
Trump or Harris? Israelis discuss presidential choice as war with Hamas, other terror groups continues

You may also like

Why Investors Are Flocking to XPEV Stock: Decoding High SCTR...

March 6, 2025

Why Were Chinese Stocks Up 20% Last Week?!

September 27, 2024

The Labor Market and the Stock Market

February 1, 2023

Opposite George Week Is Underway!

July 18, 2023

Major Market Shift As Week Ends Strong!

August 24, 2024

The Wisdom of Jesse Livermore, Part 7

June 7, 2023

Sprouts Farmers Market: A Hidden Gem on the Corner of...

January 4, 2024

Bearish Triad: Stock Market Indexes and Market Breadth Test Important...

October 22, 2023

RRG Shows Explosion In Growth Stocks Is Taunting The Fed

October 8, 2023

Can the Windowmaker Natural Gas Resuscitate?

September 8, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Week Ahead: NIFTY Holds 50-Week MA;...

    March 4, 2023

    Waning Participation within a Key Benchmark...

    April 7, 2023

    The Stock Market This Week: What...

    March 22, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here