• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Week Ahead: NIFTY Steps Into Next Week With These Two Negative Technical Developments
Stock

Week Ahead: NIFTY Steps Into Next Week With These Two Negative Technical Developments

by January 11, 2025
by January 11, 2025 0 comment
Share
1
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

The markets extended their decline over the past five sessions and ended the week on a negative note. While the week started on a bearish note, the Nifty violated a few key levels on higher and lower time frame charts. Along with the weak undercurrent, the trading range widened again as the Nifty moved in a 745-point range. The volatility spiked up, and India Vix surged 10.16% to 14.91 on a weekly basis. Following a thoroughly bearish undertone, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 573.25 points (-2.39%).

The week that has gone by has remained important from a technical perspective. The Nifty started the week by violating the 200-DMA placed at 23940 and has closed significantly below this crucial level. On the weekly charts, the Nifty has breached another critical level of 50-week MA, currently at 23659. In the process, the Nifty has dragged its resistance points lower; any technical rebound will find resistance at this point. It is important to note that the 50-week MA has been violated after three retests, and the breach of this level will have bearish considerations for the markets. Unless the Nifty crosses above this level again, it will stay vulnerable to a prolonged phase of weakness.

Monday is likely to see the Nifty beginning on a soft note; the levels of 23650 and 23880 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 23300 and 23050 levels.

The weekly RSI is 43.53; it has marked a new 14-period low, which is bearish. The RSI also shows a bearish divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below the signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated momentum on the downside.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows Nifty completing a painful process of mean reversion by finding support at the 50-week MA in November. Since then, it has retested this level three times and has breached it by closing below this crucial level. The 50-week MA is placed at 23659; so long as the Index stays below this point, it remains vulnerable to an extended period of weakness in the near term.

Over the past week, the technical developments have created a strong resistance zone for the Nifty between 23650-24000 level. So long as the Index stays below this zone, it will likely trade with a weak undercurrent. Given the current technical setup, cutting down on leveraged exposures and keeping them at modest levels is extremely important. While initiating fresh exposures, staying in the stocks with strong or improving Relative Strength will be necessary as that would provide resilience to the investments. While staying highly selective, a highly cautious outlook is recommended for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Nifty Financial Services, and Nifty IT indices are inside the leading quadrant. Barring the Nifty IT index, all others are seen giving up on their relative momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and may relatively outperform the broader markets.

The Nifty Pharma Index stays inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. Along with the Media, PSE, Energy, and Commodities, it is likely to underperform the broader markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Auto, FMCG, and Consumption Indices are in the lagging quadrant but are improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty index is well placed inside the improving quadrant. The PSU Bank Index is also inside the improving quadrant, but it is seen paring its relative momentum against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

You Might Also Like
  • Tips n’ Tricks to Instantly Enhance Your Chart Annotating
  • Macro to Micro — Seasonals, Trends and Momentum
  • DP Trading Room: Use a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Sort to Find Winners!
  • After the Tech Bloodbath: Ways to Strategize Your Portfolio
Share
1
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Meta announces end of its DEI programs. Read the memo.
next post
Market Pullbacks Provide Opportunities to Build your WatchList – Here’s How

You may also like

BUY Signals Continue to Diminish

February 16, 2024

THIS is the BEST Market Sector Right Now!

January 8, 2025

The Best Five Sectors (1)

January 3, 2025

Bank Fear Selloff Gives Way To Earnings Driven Rally –...

April 29, 2023

Meme Stock Frenzy Back In the Spotlight: Are Traders Losing...

May 14, 2024

When You See Amazon Turning Around Beautiful Things Start To...

March 31, 2023

The Bottom is Here or Rapidly Approaching

April 13, 2025

These S&P 500 Stocks Are Poised To Outperform!

November 1, 2024

The Wisdom of Waiting for Your Pitch

August 3, 2023

With The Top 10 Picks In The Stock Market DRAFT,...

February 19, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp up Max production, CEO says

      May 29, 2025
    • Nuclear Power Trio: OKLO, SMR, and CCJ in Focus

      May 29, 2025
    • Analyzing SIL, USO, and NVDA: Could These Bullish Patterns Trigger?

      May 29, 2025
    • E.l.f. Beauty to acquire Hailey Bieber skin care brand Rhode in up to $1 billion deal

      May 29, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,764 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,470 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,450 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,429 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,307 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,104)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Nvidia results spark global chip rally

      May 30, 2025
    • Boeing to resume airplane deliveries to China next month, ramp...

      May 29, 2025
    • Nuclear Power Trio: OKLO, SMR, and CCJ in Focus

      May 29, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,104)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,578)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation Out of...

    January 31, 2023

    Missed Out on Micron’s 112% Surge?...

    March 15, 2024

    Election Season: Keep Calm and Optimize...

    October 25, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here