• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock Master Multiple Time Frame Analysis With This Simple Method
Stock

Master Multiple Time Frame Analysis With This Simple Method

by February 14, 2025
by February 14, 2025 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

How can we define the market trend on multiple time frames, so we can better identify trend changes and ensure we are following the drive of market forces?  Today I’ll describe my proprietary Market Trend Model to define the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, and share what it’s telling us about market conditions in February 2025.

Using Moving Averages to Define the Trend

Using a simple daily chart with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, we can show why the slope of the moving average can provide valuable insights on trend direction.  Let’s look at the daily chart of Apple (AAPL), and we’ll focus on a highlighted period in 2023-2024.

Starting with the 200-day moving average, we can see that the 200-day tends to slope higher during uptrends and lower during downtrends.  So for the highlighted period in 2023 and 2024, the 200-day moving average tended to slope higher through that entire trend.

Note how there were a couple meaningful pullbacks in the price of AAPL in Q3 2023 and Q2 2024.  While the 200-day moving average was still sloping higher, the 50-day moving average sloped downward in each of those pullbacks.  So by using two moving averages of varying periods, we can define the trend by simply looking at the slope of the moving averages.

We can also use a crossover technique and look for golden crosses (short-term moving average crosses above long-term moving average) and death crosses (short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average) as a way of determining changes in those trends.

Exponential Moving Averages Improve Trend Detection

The problem with simple moving averages, as used above, is that they weigh all the data points equally in the calculation.  So what happened two days ago has the same impact as what happened 192 days ago!  By using exponential moving averages, which weight the most recent data the most, our charts will react more quickly to changes in the trend.

My Market Trend Model uses a series of exponential moving averages on a weekly chart of the S&P 500 to define the secular (long-term), cyclical (medium-term), and tactical (short-term) time frames.  By using the PPO indicator, I can chart the trends using a histogram and simply check if the comparison is above or below the zero line.

Based on my model, the long-term trend has been bullish since March 2023.  The medium-term trend, which is the most important one for my own portfolio analysis, turned bullish in November 2023.  And the short-term trend just turned bullish in early January after flipping bearish in early December of last year.

Tracking the Market Trend Model in February 2025

When my Market Trend Model is bullish on all three time frames, as it is as of this Friday’s closing price data, it tells me to be looking for long ideas and make sure I am taking on risk in my portfolio.  If the short-term trend would turn bearish, that would indicate a pullback phase within the long-term uptrend, as we observed a number of times in 2024.

The key signal I’m looking for would be the medium-term trend turning bearish, which last occurred in September 2023.  That signal would tell me to go more risk-off, to get more defensive, and to focus more on capital preservation than capital appreciation.  For now, my Market Trend Model is suggesting a market trending higher.  And until the medium-term trend turns bearish, I’m inclined to assume the market trend is innocent until proven guilty!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

You Might Also Like
  • What’s Wrong With This SPX Breakout?
  • MEM TV: The Easy Way to Uncover Stocks Poised to Outperform
  • Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day
  • Mag 7 Stocks in the Spotlight as Stock Market Recovers
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Stay Ahead of Tariffs: Essential Chart Analysis for Investment Security
next post
Retail sales slumped 0.9% in January, down much more than expected

You may also like

Election Aftermath: Unleashing Profitable Small Cap Stocks

November 7, 2024

Watch for These ADX Combinations

January 19, 2023

The Halftime Show: 6 ETFs That Are on My Radar

September 14, 2023

DP Trading Room: Final Earnings are In for 2023 Q4!

April 15, 2024

Sector Spotlight: Bonds Surrender to Strong US Stock Market

June 20, 2023

How To Stop Missing Trades Using Price Alerts

March 7, 2024

DP Trading Room: Intermediate-Term View of the Magnificent 7

April 29, 2024

The Hidden Meaning Behind the Tech Sector’s Rally (And How...

May 1, 2025

MEM TV: Growth Stocks Fade While These Areas Shine

March 9, 2024

Intermediate-Term Bearish Head & Shoulders on Semiconductors (SMH)

September 6, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • How to Find Compelling Charts in Every Sector

      July 10, 2025
    • White House accuses Powell of mismanaging Federal Reserve, citing headquarters renovation

      July 10, 2025
    • Italian chocolate giant Ferrero to buy Kellogg’s Froot Loops maker

      July 10, 2025
    • OpenAI to release web browser in challenge to Google Chrome

      July 10, 2025
    • Sports executive charged with bid-rigging in Texas arena project

      July 10, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 3,631 views
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,919 views
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,607 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,577 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,449 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,171)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,662)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • How to Find Compelling Charts in Every Sector

      July 10, 2025
    • White House accuses Powell of mismanaging Federal Reserve, citing headquarters...

      July 10, 2025
    • Italian chocolate giant Ferrero to buy Kellogg’s Froot Loops maker

      July 10, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,171)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,662)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    The Hoax of Modern Finance –...

    November 29, 2023

    Week Ahead: Markets Stare At Imminent...

    April 16, 2023

    The Long-Term Bull Case for Bitcoin

    August 30, 2023
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here