• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Stock This is the Group to Watch for the Next Bull Market Phase and Separating Noise from Reality
Stock

This is the Group to Watch for the Next Bull Market Phase and Separating Noise from Reality

by April 18, 2025
by April 18, 2025 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

Technically, it’s rather clear that we remain in a downtrend. However, not all downtrends are created equal. Some are built to last, while others can turn around quickly. Recognizing the difference is obviously quite important. What most traders/investors cannot grasp is that secular (long-term) bull markets often see corrections or cyclical (short-term) bear markets. Both of these are much, much different than a secular bear market and present tremendous opportunity. Many market participants believe every downturn is the start of a lengthy secular bear market and that’s a problem. Always believing the worst-case scenario makes it incredibly difficult to benefit from cheaper prices by entering stocks during downtrends. By waiting and watching the market move higher again, market participants will be forced to buy back in much higher due to FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

Trading out and then back in purely based on emotion – panicking out and then getting back in due to the fear of missing out – is the exact way to ruin any hope of financial success in the stock market. The first question I’d ask everyone is….do you believe that the big Wall Street firms get out of the stock market (or rotate to safer stocks) before you and me? Then, do you believe they get back into aggressive areas of the market before you and me? If you answered yes to both questions, we have something in common. If you believe that stock market performance is random, then we can’t be friends. (just kidding)

I have a way of proving my theory that Wall Street manipulates all of us and I’ll get to that in a bit. First, though, from a purely technical perspective, there is one major industry group that I look to for relative performance during uptrends and downtrends, an aggressive area that helps to provide us clues about the possible future direction of the overall stock market. When these groups are leading on a relative basis, it’s difficult to keep the S&P 500 down. But when they’re lagging, it opens the door to potential market tops and not-so-great action ahead.

This group shouldn’t be a big surprise.

Semiconductors ($DJUSSC)

Semiconductors are used in so many things that we buy nowadays, so it makes perfect sense that the performance of this industry group not only can determine which way the S&P 500 is going to go, but it also provides us a sense of what Wall Street believes about our economy. As the economy improves (or is expected to improve), this group typically explodes in anticipation of that demand. The following 10-year weekly chart of the S&P 500 and the relative strength of semiconductors ($DJUSSC:$SPX) illustrates perfectly my point:

Since early 2016, the S&P 500 has seen its weekly PPO move below zero four times. Just before or at the time of those bearish crossovers, the DJUSSC rolled over on a relative basis vs. the S&P 500. Wall Street was selling ahead of the crowd, getting out before telling you and me to get out. You can also see in that bottom panel that it resulted in inverse, or negative, correlation. Over the past 10 years, inverse correlation hasn’t happened often. Typically, a strong semiconductor group is accompanied by a strong market, and vice versa.

On the price chart, the blue directional lines on the DJUSSC:$SPX relative price chart mostly accompanies the S&P 500 moving higher (blue-shaded area). Likewise, the red directional lines on the DJUSSC:$SPX relative price chart mostly accompanies the S&P 500 moving lower. But it’s when the DJUSSC and $SPX do NOT move in the same direction that we should take notice.

I believe we’re in a bottoming phase in the stock market. I could certainly be wrong, but I think my track record calling market bottoms is fairly solid. If I’m correct this time, then we should see the DJUSSC start to turn higher on a relative basis on a daily chart. That hasn’t happened yet. Take a look:

On this daily chart, we continue to see very positive correlation, confirming that the DJUSSC and the SPX both tend to move in the same direction. So it stands to reason that if the S&P 500 can clear key price resistance at 5521 and the DJUSSC:SPX relative strength line breaks above its current downtrend resistance, then I’d say the bottom is confirmed. I’d keep an eye on this chart moving forward.

Noise or Reality?

Any time we’re setting new highs or new lows, this is my primary question. Bottoms always form when the market “noise” or “news” is terribly bad. Moving off of lows happens when Wall Street looks 6 to 9 months down the road and sees brighter skies. We can’t feel it, but Wall Street sees it. It’s like we’re brainwashed into believing that today’s bad or uncertain news will carry the stock market lower and lower, when in reality, we’re simply being manipulated as a market bottom approaches.

I want you to join me on Saturday morning, April 19th, at 10am ET for a very important session, “Bear Market 2025: Separate Noise from Reality.” I will discuss several key factors that you need to be aware of RIGHT NOW. You may have already made up your mind as to where the S&P 500 is heading….and that’s totally fine! But making very important financial decisions without considering ALL market angles would be a huge mistake, in my view.

To gain access to our FREE event Saturday, CLICK HERE for more information and to register. Seats are limited, so please register now to avoid being shut out. Also, if you’re reading this AFTER our event, you should still register, because we will be happy to send you a recording of the event to check it out at your leisure.

Happy trading!

Tom

You Might Also Like
  • Market Begs: Tell Us Something Good!
  • Strategy After Rate Cuts: Best Areas to BUY!
  • Chesapeake Energy: A Stock That Could Pump Much More
  • Stocks in Focus: Three Stocks Primed for Explosive Growth
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
Target CEO to meet with Rev. Al Sharpton as civil rights groups threaten boycotts over DEI
next post
Breadth Maps Are A Bloodbath, BUT Has The Bounce Begun?

You may also like

The Financial Sector’s Bullish Comeback: Is It Time to Start...

January 16, 2025

Bearish Divergences in 2 KEY Growth Stocks: BEWARE!

June 13, 2024

Earnings Provide Another Nail in the Retail Coffin

August 28, 2024

NVDA is Holding Strong: It’s Time to Think About Accumulating...

April 11, 2024

Sentiment And Small Caps Are A 1-2 Punch, Knocking Out...

March 3, 2024

What Seasonality Charts Reveal About the Top Sectors to Watch...

November 12, 2024

Chart and Trend Signals Align for Datadog

June 24, 2023

Soaring Semiconductors Carry NASDAQ To Key High; A Solid Trade...

November 12, 2023

Is the Correction Over? Or Are We Still Looking at...

March 26, 2025

Sector Spotlight: Monthly RRG Shows Preference for Stocks Over Bonds

September 5, 2023

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right Now

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025
    • U.S. foreign tax bill sends jitters across Wall Street

      May 30, 2025
    • Amazon taps Xbox co-founder to lead new team developing ‘breakthrough’ consumer products

      May 30, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,765 views
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,472 views
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 2,451 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,432 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,308 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 2

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 3

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • Breakouts, Momentum & Moving Averages: 10 Must-See Stock Charts Right...

      May 31, 2025
    • Leadership Rotation Could Confirm Corrective Phase

      May 30, 2025
    • Run Your Stock Portfolio Like a Pro Sports Team

      May 30, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,106)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,581)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Patience is Key: Waiting for the...

    August 12, 2023

    The Wisdom of Jesse Livermore, Part...

    April 26, 2023

    Gilead’s Game-Changer: What You Need to...

    June 21, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here