• Investing
  • Stock
Round Table Thoughts
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Home Editor's Pick Trump’s tariffs on Brazil could make your coffee even more expensive
Editor's Pick

Trump’s tariffs on Brazil could make your coffee even more expensive

by July 11, 2025
by July 11, 2025 0 comment
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

President Donald Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian imports is bad news for coffee drinkers.

Brazil, the largest U.S. supplier of green coffee beans, accounts for about a third of the country’s total supply, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Coffee beans need to grow in a warm, tropical climate, making Hawaii and Puerto Rico the only suitable places in the United States to farm the crop. But, as the world’s top consumer of coffee, the U.S. requires a massive supply to stay caffeinated. Mintel estimates that the U.S. coffee market reached $19.75 billion last year.

The increase in trade duties could leave consumers with even higher costs after several years of soaring coffee prices. Inflation-weary consumers have seen prices for lattes and cold brew climb as droughts and frost hit the global coffee supply, particularly in Brazil. Earlier this year, coffee bean futures hit all-time highs. They rose 1% on Thursday, although still well below the record set in February.

To be sure, there’s still time for Brazil to strike a deal with the White House before the tariffs go into effect on Aug. 1. Plus, food and beverage makers are hoping that the Trump administration will grant exemptions for key commodities. U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in an interview in late June that the White House is considering exemptions for produce that can’t be grown in the U.S. — including coffee.

But if that doesn’t happen, coffee companies like Folgers owner J.M. Smucker, Keurig Dr Pepper, Starbucks and Dutch Bros will face much higher costs for the commodity. Giuseppe Lavazza, chair of Italian roaster Lavazza, said on Bloomberg TV on Thursday morning that the latest tariff could mean “a lot of inflation” for the coffee industry.

Roasters will try to mitigate the impact of the higher tariff, but it won’t be easy.

“Every company is always trying to eke out the next efficiency, to dial into their operations or find the way to minimize inflationary pressures, but a 50% tariff on a commodity that fundamentally is not available in the U.S. — you can’t really do much with that,” Tom Madrecki, vice president of supply chain and logistics for the Consumer Brands Association, a trade group that represents the consumer packaged goods industry.

One mitigation tactic could be to import beans from countries other than Brazil, but companies will likely still be paying more for the commodity.

“A characteristic of tariffs, especially when you have tariffs on multiple countries at once, is that not just the inbound cost rises. It allows the pricing floor to also rise,” Madrecki said. “If you have cheaper coffee in a country different than Brazil, you’re not inclined to sell it at a 30% lower cost. You’re going to try to bump your coffee up a bit more, too.”

At-home coffee brands, like JM Smucker’s Dunkin’ and Kraft Heinz’s Maxwell House, have already been hiking their prices this year in response to spiking commodity costs. More price increases could be on the way for consumers, although retailers may push back.

Keurig Dr Pepper would consider additional price hikes in the latter half of the year to mitigate the impact of tariffs, CEO Tim Cofer said in late April, after Trump introduced his initial round of so-called reciprocal duties.

And Smuckers warned investors on its quarterly conference call in early June that tariffs on coffee were weighing on its profits. Coffee accounts for roughly a third of the company’s revenue.

“Green coffee is an unavailable natural resource that cannot be grown in the continental United States due to its reliance on a tropical climate,” Smuckers CEO Mark Smucker said. “We currently purchase approximately 500 million pounds of green coffee annually, with the majority coming from Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest coffee-producing countries.”

Vietnam, which announced a tentative trade deal with the White House earlier this month, supplies about 8% of the U.S.’s green coffee beans. Under the agreement, the U.S. will impose a 20% duty on Vietnamese imports.

Consumers who prefer a caramel macchiato from Starbucks for their caffeine hit will likely see a more muted impact on their wallets.

After several quarters of sluggish U.S. sales, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol said in late 2024 that the company wouldn’t raise prices in 2025, in the hopes of winning back customers who had complained about how expensive its drinks had gotten. While it waits for its turnaround to take hold, Starbucks might choose to swallow the higher coffee costs.

The coffee giant also benefits from its diversity — both in suppliers and the breadth of its menu, which now includes the popular Refreshers line. Starbucks imports its coffee from 30 different countries, and roughly 10% of its cost of goods sold in North America comes from coffee.

The new trade duty could mean a 0.5% increase in Starbucks’ North American cost of goods sold, assuming about 22% of its beans come from Brazil, TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. Starbucks’ packaged drinks, which are distributed by Nestle, could see their cost of goods sold increase 3.5%. Altogether, that represents a 5-cent drag on annual earnings per share, according to Charles.

For rival Dutch Bros, higher coffee costs also wouldn’t hurt its bottom line much. Coffee accounts for less than a tenth of the drive-thru coffee chain’s cost of goods sold. Assuming that Dutch Bros sources more than half of its coffee from Brazil, its cost of goods sold would rise just 1.3%, according to Charles’ estimates.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
You Might Also Like
  • McDonald’s reportedly temporarily shuts its U.S. corporate offices ahead of layoffs
  • Thousands of autoworkers at Toyota, Honda and others move to unionize after UAW victory over the Big Three
  • Boeing sweetens offer to union as strike enters second week
  • Target CEO addresses price gouging accusations in retail
Share
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsapp

previous post
How to Find Compelling Charts in Every Sector
next post
The Small Cap ‘Early Warning’ System: Use StockCharts to Time Pullbacks and Protect Profits

You may also like

OpenAI employees threaten to quit en masse after former CEO...

November 21, 2023

Target, McDonald’s and others are offering value as they lose...

May 24, 2024

GM to invest $625 million in joint venture to mine...

October 17, 2024

Women’s basketball league Unrivaled secures $28M in funding from star-studded...

December 17, 2024

CarShield ordered to pay $10 million federal settlement over deceptive...

August 1, 2024

Trump Media director accused of ‘hacking’ files in attempted corporate...

April 13, 2024

First the token, now the swipe: NYC’s subway system to...

March 19, 2025

Netflix maintained its 2025 guidance. That may not be the...

April 21, 2025

Do you buy packaged meat or bagged fruit from Walmart?...

April 9, 2024

How America’s chief consumer-protection agency came into the Trump administration’s...

February 13, 2025

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent Posts

    • The CappThesis Market Strength Indicator: What It’s Telling Us Now

      July 11, 2025
    • The Small Cap ‘Early Warning’ System: Use StockCharts to Time Pullbacks and Protect Profits

      July 11, 2025
    • Trump’s tariffs on Brazil could make your coffee even more expensive

      July 11, 2025
    • How to Find Compelling Charts in Every Sector

      July 10, 2025
    • White House accuses Powell of mismanaging Federal Reserve, citing headquarters renovation

      July 10, 2025

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese...

      June 25, 2024 3,631 views
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be...

      June 27, 2024 2,919 views
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as...

      August 9, 2024 2,607 views
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful...

      July 10, 2024 2,577 views
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility...

      August 29, 2024 2,451 views

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,172)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,664)

    Popular Posts

    • 1

      Biden appointee played key role in recruiting Chinese businesses to Delaware: ‘Longtime friends’

      June 25, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Walz’s honeymoon with China gets fresh scrutiny as Harris camp blasts ‘lying’ critics

      August 9, 2024
    • 4

      Shein’s global ambitions leaves some cybersecurity experts fearful of Chinese spy threats

      July 10, 2024
    • 5

      Harris VP pick spent years promoting research facility that collaborated with ‘Chinese military company’

      August 29, 2024

    Latest News

    • The CappThesis Market Strength Indicator: What It’s Telling Us Now

      July 11, 2025
    • The Small Cap ‘Early Warning’ System: Use StockCharts to Time...

      July 11, 2025
    • Trump’s tariffs on Brazil could make your coffee even more...

      July 11, 2025

    Categories

    • Economy (7,009)
    • Editor's Pick (2,172)
    • Investing (538)
    • Stock (2,664)

    Disclaimer: RoundTableThoughts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 RoundTableThoughts.com. All Rights Reserved.

    Round Table Thoughts
    • Investing
    • Stock
    Round Table Thoughts
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Read alsox

    Why companies are canceling summer Fridays

    June 17, 2024

    Home prices soar even higher in...

    May 2, 2024

    Laid off from a nearly six-figure...

    July 8, 2024
    Sign In

    Keep me signed in until I sign out

    Forgot your password?

    Password Recovery

    A new password will be emailed to you.

    Have received a new password? Login here