5 reasons Democrats are in the lead in 2024 elections

As clarity increases at the top of the ticket, the real prize is winning in November. I’m a conservative Republican who served in the U.S. Congress for more than eight years. While I’m optimistic, I’m also realistic. Here are the five reasons Democrats are doing the right things to win in November.

GOTV

It sounds obvious, and it is, but getting out the vote (GOTV) is paramount. As others have said in the past, the world is ruled by those who show up. Realistically, only a portion of our friends and neighbors will actually take the time to vote.

Democrats have the overwhelming advantage because they lean heavily on unions – labor unions, public employee unions, etc. They’ve also figured out how to funnel mass amounts of money to nonprofits – many of them ostensibly nonpartisan. Some of it is legally sketchy given how much Democrats have politicized these tax-exempt entities, but they get away with it. 

How many right-leaning organizations do you know that actively work to get out the vote for Republicans? Even the Republican National Committee has little to show for this type of sustained effort.

ENTHUSIASM

It has long been said that enthusiasm wins elections. It’s still true. Democrats believe they can lean on abortion and ‘democracy’ to fire people up to vote. That formula certainly worked in 2022, when Republicans expected a big red wave. Democrats use ballot initiatives, such as abortion rights and the legalization of marijuana, to draw nontraditional voters out to the polls en masse. 

Democrats also excel at scaring voters with falsehoods. Their favorite trope is Republicans wanting to destroy Social Security and Medicare while throwing grandma off a cliff. Likewise, they continue to promise Donald Trump will do all the scary things President Biden is already doing – with little awareness of the irony. 

They say Trump will start wars, crash the economy, govern as a dictator, and use lawfare to destroy his political opponents. That extreme level of projection seems to be lost on much of the mainstream media. 

MEDIA PRESENCE

Speaking of the media, there is no doubt the traditional media continues to buoy up Democratic candidates and issues, while demonizing Republicans and conservatives. The propaganda is overwhelming if you know what’s really going on.

With some exceptions, the biggest media organizations still favor Democrats and blatantly suppress Republican or conservative messaging. Try finding an article from The Federalist in a Google search. Leftist talking points are everywhere, but intelligent arguments from conservative publications are mysteriously missing from the search results.

PROMISES

There is a structural advantage when one party gets to play Santa Claus with other people’s money and the other has to be the Grinch. Responsible spending will never be as popular as free money. When the core of your belief is that all problems can be solved by giving government more money, the biggest spender wins. It is enticing to a significant number of people to count on unlimited government support.

Remember in ‘Napoleon Dynamite’ when Pedro was advised to simply promise everything would be better by voting for him? He didn’t need to take a specific stance on a particular issue. He just needed to tell everybody he would solve their problems. He won handily. That formula works.

FROM THE HEART

It’s not good enough to just be right on the issues. The most successful candidates are the ones who speak from their heart, explaining why they believe what they believe. Democrats have traditionally convinced voters that because they are willing to spend more, they care more. Republican and conservative success will come when candidates get better at emphasizing that voters can spend their money more effectively than government can. Do it with sincerity and the authenticity shines through.

There is a saying in politics, ‘When you’re explaining, you are losing.’ Republicans are really good at talking about labor participation rates, unemployment rates, and technical details about how Iranian funding of the Houthis slows down 15% of the world shipping in the Red Sea. Important, but less important than showing people you care enough to make their lives better.  

In a constitutional republic, which is what we are in the United States, people are elected to dive deep into the issues. Republicans would do well not to cede the ‘we care more’ ground to the Democrats. If not, the Democrats will exceed expectations yet again.